key numbers in basketball betting picks

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Key numbers in basketball betting picks

The problem is that, in most cases, it is not worth buying the half point. Most places force you to pay an extra 10 cents of juice for buying a half point. That means instead of laying you will lay To overcome the extra 10 cents of juice you have to win an extra 4. Your record would be The standard juice would be for all of these wagers. Your record would have been Buying on is similar to buying off of them.

In this case you would buy from a number with a half point onto a key number. The below number shows how many times the straight up margin was a half point below the line. Each sport has some key numbers that sportsbooks pay close attention to when setting and adjusting lines for games.

Some numbers carry more significance, like point spreads in football, since scoring is accumulated in multiples. That said, there are still some key numbers to be aware of for each sport and bettors should have an understanding of these key thresholds when they wager along with some techniques to take advantage of them.

NFL The sport where key numbers play the biggest significance is in football. With scoring typically produced via field goals three points and touchdowns plus the extra point seven points it should come as no surprise that the most common margin of victory in an NFL game is by three points The next group of numbers that are the most common and play into line setting include six 8.

As such, sportsbooks tiptoe around these key numbers when setting lines for NFL games and are reluctant to cross over these numbers when adjusting lines. The numbers two and seven are the most commonly accepted numbers that carry weight when setting lines. The theory behind the number two comes from the idea of a game that is expected to be close and come down to the last possession.

While the number seven represents a lead that has become a three-possession game which is more likely to end without additional fouling in the closing minute to push the score above or below that threshold. While these are the most common numbers consider in basketball, others also seem to be potential tipping points such as five.

None of these numbers play a huge role in the sportsbooks willingness to move a line over these thresholds but are some numbers to be aware of when looking at basketball lines. MLB In baseball, point spreads are static at 1. In baseball, where scoring is lower, and the margin of victory is often just one run, game run totals of significance are predictably odd numbers, primarily seven and nine and to a slightly lesser extent five.

Even numbers are less common since games cannot end in a tie. NHL Hockey follows a similar pattern to baseball. Point spreads are static at 1. The game goal total is the interesting number with low-scoring games in hockey that are often decided by a single goal. Five is thee number in hockey as it is the most common number of goals scored in an NHL game and is an odd number since hockey games cannot end in a tie. As such all hockey totals revolve around that number.

While sportsbooks pay special attention to these numbers, you should also when evaluating wagers in each sport.

From a betting standpoint, basketball is quite similar to football and if you have the basics of football betting down, you can easily make the transition to both pro and college basketball.

Holdem betting strategy Pleasers Basketball pleasers follow the same principles as they do in football. No, I'm not talking about which side you like, I am talking about the line you are getting. While sportsbooks pay special attention to these numbers, you should also when evaluating wagers in each sport. NFL The sport where key numbers play the biggest significance is in football. Just check out these guys' pages and see what great work they have done making money for themselves and their clients over the years. But if the number nudges down to Teaser bets A teaser bet consists of combining two or more wagers into one bet where you can shift the lines of the games in the direction of the teams you are wagering.
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Key numbers in basketball betting picks The margin of victory may mean something different to football teams than bettors. The two ran a quick hand-off To overcome the extra 10 cents of juice you have to win an extra 4. What Does Mean? That said, there are still some key numbers to be aware of for each sport and bettors should have an understanding of these key thresholds when they wager along with some techniques to take advantage of them. When you hear a handicapper talk about "key numbers" in reference to NFL point spreads, they are referring to the most common margins of victory in NFL games.
Td visa sports betting If they fail to score that touchdown, the winning team can simply run out the clock and secure their seven-point win. Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game. No, I'm not talking about which side you like, I am talking about the line you are getting. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Or you can move a Games from through Week 1 of the season finished with a 7 point margin 9.


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Net Rating uses a different formula. It measures the point differential over the course of possessions instead of over an entire game or season. This is an important stat to combine with Pace. Toronto has a Pace rating of That means that on average, they will outscore an opponent by six points per game.

Golden State has a pace rating of Sometimes bettors need to use their eyes as much as they use stats. Boston, statistically speaking, should have given Milwaukee a more competitive series. Instead, the Bucks beat Boston in five, and none of the final four games of the series were close. Because Milwaukee adjusted what they were doing based on statistical analysis and Kyrie Irving was unhappy. Statistics, and gambling, in general, requires context.

Do you want a more in-depth analysis of NBA betting odds? Either way, we have you covered with our sports-specific packages. Earning money through sports gambling requires time-consuming research and data analysis. Our experts will do the research for you so that you can sit back and enjoy the action. Sign up today! These seem like simple NBA stats, so why put them first on the list?

Almost every advanced metric stat feeds into these five categories. Net Rating Most people use a simple formula that measures point differential covering an entire game. The most popular bet in all of sports gambling is called the point spread. It involves a predicting not just which team will win the game, but what the margin of victory will be.

A point spread is a way of leveling the playing field when betting on teams with differing abilities by helping the underdog and handicapping the favorite. The favorite team will be given a negative point value, while the underdog will be given a positive point value. It will look something like this:. This means that to win this bet on the Patriots, the Pats need to win by 3. If you bet on the Eagles here, you would win the bet if they either win the game or lose by less than 3 points or more.

The second set of numbers is the odds and it tells you how much the bet pays out. Check out our guide to reading betting lines and odds for more info on that. So you know which key numbers are important for each sport. Unfortunately, so does the bookmaker. As you can see in the example above, the point spread is often placed around a key number.

Bookmakers will be reluctant to move off key numbers in the point spread since they are the most common margin of victory. However, there are still lots of ways to use key numbers to your advantage in point spread betting. When you see a point spread that is just over or under a key number for example, 3.

Point total betting is quite simple. You are betting that the total number of points scored by both teams combined will be either higher or lower than a certain number chosen by the sportsbook. In football, a typical point total bet might look like this:. In this case, the bookmaker has indicated that they believe the combined total scores in the game will be If you think the final total will be higher, bet the over.

If you think it will be lower, bet the under. Once again, the answer lies in the scoring system. The fact that points are scored in certain increments means that some points totals are much more likely than others. When you know the most common combinations, you can learn to spot when the point total is at a potentially valuable number depending on what you think the outcome of the game will be.

Some bookmakers will even allow you to bet on the exact total number of points scored, or offer point total betting in an individual quarter or half of a game. Key numbers are relevant for all of these. Key numbers are most relevant for irregular, multi-point scoring sports. Football is undoubtedly the sport in which key numbers play the biggest role when betting.

This is due to the scoring system. The first key number is the value of a field goal, the second is the value of a converted touchdown, and the third is the value of the two scores together. Think about some of the more common sounding scores for NFL games — , , , , All of these are decided by key numbers. In tight games, teams often find themselves only separated by the lowest value score, the field goal.

Think about all the tight games you have seen over the years where a team is tactically trying to wind the clock down after a field goal. A converted touchdown scores 7 points in NFL, and this is the second most common margin of victory. However, it is significantly less common than a 3 point margin, meaning that while certainly a key number, 7 is less significant in NFL than 3. Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together.

The spread, in this case, is 3, which as we know is the most important key number in NFL. In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite. Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread.

That may look like this:. A good way to think about this is that the difference between -3 and The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number. Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers,. One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets.

Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly. Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor. Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers:.

Different bookmakers offer different prices. Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information. If you find four bookmakers offering the odds in our example bet:. Many bookmakers allow you to buy points on the spread.

This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. This might look like this:. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number.

However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it. It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers.

In the NFL, key numbers in point total betting are also determined by the value of the scores and their various combinations. The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are:. Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number. Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number?

Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks.

This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price. A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software. Take our example again:. Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction.

However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under. Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes. Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around.

Either way, understanding key numbers in points totals gives you a much deeper understanding of when you should bet them. In general, everything we have covered so far applies to college football as well as the NFL. The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7 and 10, and the strategies for keeping an eye out for key numbers are the same.

One is that NFL is generally more competitive than college football, meaning that the games are often closer. College football is less predictable, meaning the key numbers are less reliable. Since college football is less competitive, more points are scored on average. This means that the point totals tend to be higher. The most common total points scored in college football, and therefore key number for point total betting, in order of importance are:.

These numbers are based on the last five years. The strategies to use these numbers are exactly the same as in the NFL, just be aware that the numbers are different. However, they still play a part and bettors should be aware of them. The value of the scores available in basketball are 2 and 3 and 1 for free throws. This is what determines the most likely winning margin in close games.

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Key Numbers in Football In football, the most obvious key number is 3 points. What Does Mean? What is a Sports Betting Middle? Doc's Picks Service Need more winning picks? All rights reserved.


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