Thank you for your time. Since the market was much much smaller, burning some money to raise candidates' odds lasted longer. In fact, the guy who lost remained comfortably above. Could be Michelle Obama Whitey tape? This is a market not the statue of David. It's raw and ugly and Obama and Intrade have similar hills to climb. For the commenters who still think this is manipulation - that would just make it an opportunity for you to get in on low Obama prices.
Markets should report number of trades and average size throughout the day, along with some sort of volume-weighted average price, so that the outliers are obvious to those trading in good faith. This spiking has me very concerned and is one of the reasons I have chosen not to make the final plunge. It is now obvious Intrade is easily manipulated by anyone with money and power, and the people who run the site condone this. Delete from Bookmarks. Especially since there are other prediction markets -- you can arbitrage between them and make riskless profit.
I really can't see a way in which a trader acting "irrationally" is bad I'm a real-money trader on the site, and have taken a significant position in one of the US presidential markets. I've seen some of the blog postings elsewhere with conspiracy-theory-type ideas about manipulation on Intrade, and have never been able to take them seriously. Speaking with 20 years of experience, I think that anyone who's familiar with short-term price changes in the equity or bond markets has to laugh at the concern over short-term swings on Intrade.
As you rightly point out, those swings can be a good thing - at least, they provided me with good entry points to buy Obama contracts more cheaply. For what it's worth, I have very high confidence in Intrade, which is why I wired thousands of dollars from the US to your market for trading. I'm looking forward to a successful conclusion to the election, and withdrawal of a nice little profit ; best wishes for your market's future success, brad. Everyone loves a conspiracy.
Obama fans think someone is "dissing" their man. Look, some high roller wants to throw down a ton of cash at crazy prices. Folks, ever been to Vegas? It happens. Again he insures himself a bad fill, more effective than a slow accumulation at skewing the market.
If you are a true trader, then you take this as an opportunity. Has anybody ever heard of the word called "slippage"? The trader in question had larger order size then the present market can handle so it moved the market in order to fill his order. The market eventually moved backed to its rightful place. It gave me a opportunity and others from this price discrepency to profit so I have no complaints. This kind of "institutional" trading happens everyday in the commodity markets.
The people who use the term "rogue trader" are just naive about how markets work. I did think that the odds were a bit skewed in favor of predicting a McCain victory. I want Obama. Those raised odds for McCain didn't demoralize the Obama supporters, they panicked and then energized them.
Overall, if there was an attempt to alter the odds, whoever was doing it lost both financially and strategically. Great post and comments. SteveMDFP - agree. I traded against this trader who drove the McC up and BO down. Just some big swinger having fun or bookmaker laying off risk in a hurry. Bookmaker probably couldnt lay off the risk in hte size needed on at anyother venue.
They are just covering the risk that mccain gets in. A wise old hillbilly once warned me at an Ozark farm sale when bidding on an antique item was going particularly high: "Trouble is, you don't know if you're bidding against a smart man or a damn fool. An institutional trader wishing to square a position or to profit from nonpublic information will choose a time when markets are thickest to make his trades, because he'll get the smallest possible price move then, and thus higher profit.
A trader attempting to manipulate prices for whatever reason will make his trade when markets are thinnest, because he'll get the largest possible price move. So when did this "institutional" trader make his moves? Please trade a lot of money! Our markets need lots of money from smart people like you The reason being that the price disturbance only lasted less than 5 min. If someone really wanted to hold the price of McCain up, they'd have to spend a lot more than that The dynamics of it were someone who had a lot of money to spend and didn't really understand intrade, or didn't care about losing a big chunk to get instant liquidity.
Post a Comment. Intrade Comment on Alleged Manipulation in the Presidential Markets There has recently been vigorous discussion of unusual trading activity on our political prediction markets. Eyeballing it, a dutch book is profitable, ignoring the cost to your time, if the probability gap is larger than 3 percentage points; below that, the fees involved will eat up your winnings.
Why was this possible? Some noteworthy aspects of the situation are:. Once someone started doing this, it would take at least two days, probably three, for a wealthy or ambitious person to respond by wiring in enough money to bet against them. They would have to hope that the manipulation persisted long enough for them to profit from it. Someone could plan to do this over the last few days of the election without generating much resistance.
Intrade will face the risk of this until they make it easier for wolves to fund their accounts and go out hunting sheep. Nonetheless, I think this is more likely than a broad pool of Intrade participants being enthusiastic about Romney against all the evidence, and unaware that they could get better odds elsewhere.
Overcoming Bias. Was Intrade being manipulated over the last month? Everyone else can choose between cards and bank transfers. It takes at least a day, probably two, to open a new Intrade account and have it approved.
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