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The dinar fell as low as 1, in the open market this year before Iraqi authorities reacted by allowing two state-run banks and some private lenders to sell dollars, helping push the exchange rate back to around 1, currently.
Another factor counting against the dinar is the fact that the largest banknote is only 25, dinars. This often makes the currency unattractive to use in an economy where the banking system is primitive and deals are often done in cash. Saadeldine recalls paying in cash for a new house in The central bank has been considering plans to knock three zeros off the nominal value of banknotes to simplify financial transactions.
This would not in itself increase the real value of the dinar, since prices would adjust in line with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and thus boost its value eventually. Earlier this year, however, the cabinet decided to suspend the technically complex redenomination plan until further notice, saying the economic climate was not suitable.
The biggest obstacle to dinar appreciation is the fact that for now at least, Iraqi authorities appear content with the exchange rate in its current range. In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for , written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable. Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that he expected redenomination of the dinar to go ahead in or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder.
Some analysts think the appreciation could go further. Kamal al-Basri, research director at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reforms, an independent research body in Baghdad, said he expected the dinar to stay stable for the next three years, but that afterwards it might strengthen beyond parity against the dollar, including the effect of redenomination. For that to happen, Iraqi politics will have to stabilise, skill and education levels rise and the economy diversify so that it is not so heavily dependent on oil exports, he said.
Why not? What we are going through is an abnormal condition We are an oil country. The dollar-rial trade seemed like a welcome alternative income during the financial turmoil, which has destroyed countless livelihoods. A survey by the International Rescue Committee IRC aid organisation has found 87 percent of people questioned said they could no longer work because of the disease.
Iraq is going through its worst economic crisis in its recent history, hit by a slump in oil prices that account for almost all public revenues. Many Iraqis use American dollars and their own dinars interchangeably, with the rates stable between the two currencies.
American sanctions have long stifled the Iranian economy, and the closure of official border crossings between Iran and Iraq has added to the woes. Two of the most holy sites for Shias, Karbala and Najaf, are both in southern Iraq. Millions of Shia pilgrims, the majority from Iran, visit every year.
They bring Iranian rials to spend and trade. In past years, the visitors brought in up to five billion dollars — crucial in a country where almost all tourism is to religious sites. It also provided hundreds of thousands of jobs and accounted for around 2. But with travel restrictions in place because of the virus, the shops and restaurants once busy with visitors are closed. Iranian arrivals had already slowed amid deep economic woes at home since the United States in withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement and reinstated punishing sanctions.
Coronavirus in Iran — the worst in the region with more than 17, deaths and , infections — has only worsened the situation of the country.
Calendar Forecast Indicators News. Population Unemployment Rate. More Indicators. National Statistics World Bank. Write for Us. Publish your articles and forecasts in our website. Get recognition from our millions of users. Dow Jones. FTSE CAC IBEX ASX JPMorgan Chase. Exxon Mobil. Goldman Sachs. Crude Oil. Natural gas. Heating oil. Lean Hogs. They expect that the authorities will soon set the dinar-dollar rate at something far more favorable.
If that were to occur, those who maintained their faith will be millionaires; those who buckled in the face of adversity will have missed their opportunity. With its religious intensity and scorn for nonbelievers, this belief is almost the financial equivalent of the rapture.
Some members of investorsiraq. Another member, "Taxmama," the proud owner of 31 million Iraqi dinars, wrote to ABC News saying that she expected the Iraqi government to repeg the dinar to the dollar at around later this month. This, however, would just be the beginning. Most feel it should easily reach one U. S dollar per dinar by one year. Rumors of a coming repeg fly around the Internet regularly.
William Murray, chief press officer at the International Monetary Fund, says his office receives calls "on a relatively regular basis" from people inquiring about "a whole raft of speculative stories" they seem to have discovered online.
Murray tells each caller that the IMF would not have a hand in any putative revaluation, and told ABC News that he suspected these rumors are fabricated by dinar sellers to "influence" people into buying more. Many postings in the Investorsiraq. But heavy-handed sales tactics do not seem to account for all the true believers. Many have similar aims: putting the kids through college; finishing off the mortgage; creating a financial pillow while setting up their own businesses.
For some, the dinar investment is also political. Sean Malowney, a self-described prowar investor, argues that supporters of the war like him need to "put their money where their mouths are. What finally sold him on the investment, Malowney said, joking, was the prospect of "the everlasting ability to say, 'I told you so.
They would say, rather, that they are profiting from -- and contributing to -- peace within Iraq. One poster on the Iraq investors Web site who calls himself "Darkring" hoped that ABC News would emphasize that most dinar-holics are "trying to help out in our own small way by investing our money into Iraq. This opens a door on the thinking behind what drives many who believe in the wisdom of investing in the dinar: The investment just feels as if it ought to be right.
After all, the tale of the little guy taking a big risk, flying in the face of conventional wisdom but winning holds great emotional resonance. The core of the "sudden repeg" belief is a magic combination of virtue, courage and hard profit. Sadly, like many a get-rich-quick scheme, the dinar investment plan may be a nice idea that crumples in reality.
First, as several members of the Iraq investors online forum observe, if there was to be an overnight revaluation, ordinary Iraqis would wake up to find their currency had ballooned in value, and there would surely be utter chaos. The writer and economist Paul Ormerod, author of "Why Most Things Fail," said that some may be overly optimistic about the dinar's prospects in order to gain quick wealth.
If the dinar did indeed hit a level in the near term, Ormerod said this would come from a "redefinition of the currency" rather than a genuine appreciation in value. Rather, a new lower currency would be introduced, and the old currency traded in for that. Needless to say, no one stands to make a windfall from that scenario.
Ormerod noted, however, that the difference of opinion on the dinar's future may help true believers. Simply put, he said, "If the dinar-holics succeed in converting everyone to their view, they won't be able to cash in their investment.
If literally everyone thinks the dinar will go up and up, no one will ever sell. Given that one can usually buy 1 million Iraqi dinars for less than 1, U. Experts at the currency conversion site www. But to some investors, the lure of proving doubting experts wrong can be as strong as the prospect of the eventual reward.
And, of course, some will invest because they simply cannot shake the fear that if they failed to join the dinar project, and it did eventually pay off, they'd kick themselves forever. It would be heartening for these investors and for Iraq if their hunches were to prove correct and optimism triumphed over the nay-saying experts. But few expect that positive outcome to happen, literally, overnight. Shows Good Morning America. World News Tonight. This Week. The View. What Would You Do?
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