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The bettor or investor if you like, whose motivation is money will try to do exactly this. The motivation is an intellectual challenge, where you want to outsmart the market and take your piece of cake. Whether it is football, tennis, or betting on growing trees.
The concept for the professional bettor is basically the same. We basically saw a big struggle during COVID, because most people who thought they are bettors, they simply turned back to fans. There were no sports and for many traditional sports gamblers, CSGO gambling was not acceptable.
And their thing sport was simply not there. On the other side, some bettors who are here for the money game, not for the game or the sport they love, started to adjust. If your motivation is money, if your motivation is how to find the value and how to outsmart the market, where you will take your piece of cake, then it is basically irrelevant what events will be offered.
Sport, porn movies, reality shows, growing trees, drinking alcohol competition,… We just need to take information, analyze information, analyze the market, compare with the market price, find the value , and invest smartly small pieces of our bankroll. This is the difference between betting, sports betting, and sports alone. The sports component is the least important for a bettor.
It is just one pool where we take the information. It could be anything. It could be any competition with two or more possible outcomes. Esports is a form of sport competition using video games. In other words, we have teams players who play video games and these events are placed on the betting market, where we can bet. Anyone who follow new trends will agree that this could be the next big thing. Younger generations are heavily connected to video games and whole communities are build around that.
Twitch, social media, video games,…. A lot of people with the same interest, a lot of fun, excitement, where emotions are involved. That is, it raises dopamine to roughly double its normal resting level, whereas drugs like heroin, cocaine, or amphetamine raise dopamine by roughly 10 times that much. I am pretty sure, that eSports betting has a bright future and during COVID, many bookmakers started to promote it big time. Many bettors started to bet on it and I decided to dig deeper into this thing too.
Independently from bookmakers — calculated numbers. I knew that betting is not about sport, but about your ability to find the value. I am always amazed, when I see people blindly following some handicappers even me on social media, when at the same time they have no idea about handicappers work, handicappers strategy and even worse — about the sport, the numbers and the value. But this is how it is. I am not here to say what to do, I will just try to explain what and how I do it. I knew that eSports gambling will be a huge thing in the future and during Covid it was a great chance for me to learn about it.
So, first I asked some of our members, who are following CSGO leagues for some time, to give me some advice where to start. I wanted to learn first about esport. Are there any leagues? Can we watch the games, so I can get the feeling. At the same time and this was even more important for me I researched what esports bet market offers. What kind of eSports events, leagues, teams, players,… they offer.
The teams have players, lineups, there is a lot of money involved, we have fans, we have people who watch this, their players are stars, there are even some trades or players changes,… a lot of similarities with our traditional sports and leagues. I can not even imagine betting without getting my numbers first and then comparing with bookmakers numbers. For successful betting or any other money-making we always need 2 numbers to compare. So, I researched the sites and the stats from all three sports if I can name them sports.
They have pretty cool organised stats, rankings, results and I decided that I will focus on this league. Such thing always take time, learning, testing, trial and errors. But without this, we can not expect any profit. The next step was to build a model , where I would get my numbers, so I can compare with bookmakers numbers. And this is how I find the value, which is the only logical way to place any money. There is many betting models or systems out there and no model is perfect.
We all know that. But the good thing is that betting is a relative skill compared to the market. And this market is full of sports fans, that are emotionally involved, who make a lot of irrational decisions, that are not based on any analysis or numbers. I use pretty simple statistical methods for my betting in spreadsheets , which worked for me in the past and hopefully it will work for me in the future too. The first thing I needed was to organise the stats.
Despite we have some nice information there, it is still not perfect. We must not forget, that eSports is pretty new thing and that more and better information will come in the future for sure. But right now, we must operate with the information that are available. So, I decided to create all teams with lineups and players stats and then use simple logistic regression. And the rest is turning these information into probabilities, which gave me directly my estimated odds. All my predictive bet models , where we bet on moneylines are made so, that I get my probabilities and then I use adjusted kelly criterion to find enough big discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers.
Based on this I also decide if I bet bigger or lower unit. And above we have the results so far. I waited to reach at least qualified bets after analysing hundreds of games to write this report. The next thing was something I call a dirty job. There are many smart sports bettors and many smart betting theorists who I deeply respect.
Many of them are very smart and much smarter than me. In fact I think I am just an average guy and this may be the reason, why many bettors can identify with me, because I try to explain things on a dumb way. Some of them I even know. But not everyone is willing to do the dirty job. We can talk about betting theory, about betting models, about backtesting, … but what I do is to test and bet real-time and publicly show this.
Wake up, check the odds, do the job. And then next day the same. And the next day the same. Some of them were also on my youtube channel. I decided to test my CSGO betting model against opening odds, against real-time odds and closing odds to see the results. So why is this important. One of the keys to win at sports betting is to bet early to outsmart the market.
The most relevant theory about profitable betting so far says, that if you beat the closing line, you will be a profitable bettor. This is the only thing that matters. Anyway, bet tracking those results is great information to see how much profit you would make if you bet on opening odds, because once you are not a follower or picks subscriber and if you have a betting model or a method to find a value, you can bet on opening odds if you are committed enough.
Tracking on real-time odds will tell you about your betting habits and it is great to compare how you will do against opening and closing odds in real life and real-time, based on your lifestyle and timezone. When it comes to analysing games of course sometimes we will find more value and sometimes we will find no value. And in the past I found my way how to find this value with adjusted kelly. I named this adjk and this is my way to calculate where I must bet more or less. For example in my baseball betting, I found the bigger the value, the better yield and better clv closing line value.
But as we all know, W-L record is not important for professional bettors. It depends on the average odds you play. So this is not even a conversation for serious bettors anymore. If you are winning bettor in most cases profit on closing odds will be much lower than on opening or taken odds. Which makes sense. And if we check the flat betting, where we simply ignore the importance of value, the difference is almost 6 units. These results were based on the discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers, where I was looking for 1.
The bigger the number the bigger the value. If we understand what was the idea behind it I estimate my odds, I compare it with bookmakers odds, I find the value and I bet more where I see more value , we can also go deeper and see if I would be more selective, what would be the results. So I quickly eliminated the bets where there was less discrepancy between my projected odds and bookmakers odds or if you like where adjk was lower. The results are even better. So if I would be more selective and if I would look only for bigger discrepancy between my numbers and bookmakers numbers, I would make even more profit.
Of course I also tracked closing line value. Based on bookmakers and some other experts that I respect Joseph Buchdahl this is the most important indicator whether you are winning or losing bettor. Despite I think esports betting is still not fully efficient market and the bookmakers will also need some time probably not a lot of time, but still… to fully adopt to this new and exciting markets, it is ok, that we go trough these numbers here as well.
Closing line value will tell you the difference between your odds and closing odds. If you bet on a team at 2. And you are completely right. This is a good sign. I will not go into the details here, but this is very important for every serious bettor. And I see more and more bettors who take this information seriously as well as betting models and projection the lines. Which is also ok. Better technology, smarter markets, smarter bettors,…and those who want to survive this game will either learn and adjust or will be forgotten by the market.
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Just Silver Things. The Utilitarian Method v. Was playing on a community server and got a spectrum case, had some left over money and this is what i got. Keep em guessing v. Look at this! Sick skin for USP-S. Author: blossomalex. The weather seems nice today huh? Opening knife round for Complexity Vs EG. Me in competitive i. Ironic i. The Internet doesn't forget v. Unintentional Wallhack OC v. When you spent hundreds of dollars opening cases. Of course not I de-ranked after this btw. Zuhn clone v.
Even on a win v. They do this everytime Epic Moment v. The best CSGO betting websites offer a good number of matches, plenty of betting markets and competitive odds. Others like Arcanebet , Lootbet and Rivalry are almost entirely dedicated to e-sports. Any of them are good sites for placing a CSGO wager. I like what you guys are up too.
Such clever work and reporting! Your email address will not be published. Cash Stonefire. Some of the most common are: Money-line bets: Betting on which team will win the match outright with no handicap is a money-line bet. This is the most common CSGO bet and a good place for beginners to start. Special bets: Special bets are wagers placed on specific events occurring during a match. There are many others as well.
Handicap bets: Generally one team is favoured over another to win. Some CSGO betting sites will introduce a handicap to induce bettors to wager. For example if Team A is favoured to beat Team B the bookmaker may introduce a handicap of This means that Team A would have to win by 3 or more rounds for a bet on them to be a winner. Outright bets or futures markets bets are bets place on a tournament outcome rather than a single match.
You can bet on things such as which team will win the tournament or if a team will make it to the finals or to the semi-finals. CSGO Betting Strategy Right off it should be stated that there is no strategy that will guarantee you always place winning wagers on CSGO match betting sites for every game although some people may claim to have one.
The theory is that every time you lose a bet you move to the next number in the sequence. The idea is when you hit a winning bet you will recoup your losses. The problem is the amount you have to bet rapidly escalates if you are on a losing streak and you will likely run out of money or hit a limit. Martingale: Similar to the Fibonacci strategy except instead of going to the next number in a sequence when you lose you double the amount of your bet.
If you win you go back to your original stake. This system has the same inherent flaw as the Fibonacci system. For example in Team A vs. Team B match Buff. Toby says:. November 2, at pm Reply.
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