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Michigan is now a full-service sports betting state! Michiganders and visitors to the state can place sports bets on their mobile devices, their computers, and several different retail locations around both mdjsjeux bettingadvice. The online launch in January marked the endpoint of a process that began in December Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed into law two bills, S and Hwhich legalized sports betting both online and in casinos. Incidentally, the two bills also legalized internet poker, online casino games and online fantasy sports. In short, Michigan is quite the destination for placing a bet now.

Malcolm pryors spread betting techniques dvd storage football betting pick of the day hours

Malcolm pryors spread betting techniques dvd storage

Next page. There's a problem loading this menu right now. Learn more about Amazon Prime. Get free delivery with Amazon Prime. Books By Malcolm Pryor. Following on from the success of his first two books, 'The Financial Spread Betting Handbook' and 'Winning Spread Betting Strategies', Malcolm Pryor now provides the spread bettor with a detailed understanding of 7 key charting tools.

Each tool has a role to play in the success of the spread bettor, and the tools can be used in combination to construct powerful trading strategies. This new book is written in a punchy and economical style, presenting much of its teaching through carefully chosen examples of charts. The focus is on practical technical analysis techniques which are directly relevant to spread bettors and traders. Other Formats: Paperback. Financial spread betting is a huge industry.

But who wins and who loses at this game? What do the winners do that differs from the losers? That is what this book is about. Malcolm Pryor uses the model of climbing a mountain to explain a disciplined, winning approach to spread betting. First a base camp must be established. This includes getting set up with the right corporate data, charting and accounts software, deciding what to bet on and what your time frame should be, learning the nuances of operating an account, controlling risk, and learning from other people's mistakes.

Many spread bettors don't even get this far. Next, we start climbing the mountain; this means having strategies that are right for us. The whole of this section is devoted to illustrating strategies which can be used for spread betting, for example trend following, counter-trend strategies and delta-neutral strategies such as pairs trading. Finally, we make our assault on the summit of the mountain. This is where the winners set themselves apart from the losers. Issues covered here include trade planning, record keeping, performance reviews, more on risk management, psychology and continual development.

In this enhanced second edition, you also benefit from: - Refreshed and improved trading and risk management techniques, incorporating four additional years of spread betting experience and changes in the markets. Spread betting is great fun; almost anyone can enjoy the odd bet now and again.

But if you want to make money from spread betting then it must be taken seriously and a disciplined, tactical approach is required. This book is the essential guide to get to the top of the mountain. Winning spread betting strategies: How to make money in the medium term in up, down and sideways markets Aug 27, From the author of the best seller 'The Financial Spread Betting Handbook' comes a book about constructing winning spread betting strategies.

Seven strategies are presented covering all types of market; up, down and sideways. Key ingredients for each strategy include overall market direction, entry and exit techniques and bet size determination. The strategies are used on a wide range of instruments including stocks, commodities and currencies, and trade duration tends to be in weeks.

Examples of each strategy are fully illustrated with charts and commentary - there are over charts in this book, taking the reader step by step through strategy implementation. The Financial Spread Betting Handbook, 3rd edition: The definitive guide to making money trading spread bets Mar 20, Zak: Clearly we at Spreadbet Magazine have a very high opinion of the merits of financial spreadbetting. MP: From my own experience as a technical analyst, I would say that there is no holy grail approach or technique which provides an easy solution to all trading problems.

For me, using a higher timeframe to give me a directional bias on a shorter timeframe was transformational for my short term trading. Seems a really simple idea, but simple can still be useful. Zak: The markets change, do your methods change with it? MP: Absolutely.

For instance, bear markets in stocks always seem to catch out spread bettors: they keep net long when they should be looking for shorts and ironically one of the great things about spread betting is that it is just as easy to go short as to go long. Their approach tends to be counter trend: they tend to look to lay bets when other customers have piled in, and they also seem to lock in profit as soon as possible a bit like a trailing stop.

Over trading comes in several forms: one being betting too much on an individual bet, another being having too many bets open at any one time, another being taking trades too frequently. The key is to have defined rules for each of these areas, so that when the trader trades, it is only ever in accordance with a defined strategy which the trader has already either tested or otherwise become comfortable with. Unless they get stopped out, I am expecting to run them until September.

Could you point us in the right direction as it is very often difficult to see the wood for the trees and very expensive to buy many books and courses in order to get it right in trading? Rightly or wrongly, I have a view that we have to do a lot of work to get proficient in investing or trading, which is why I used the analogy of climbing a mountain in the Financial Spread Betting Handbook.

You can get to the top of a mountain, but you have to prepare well and it is hard work. Zak: I have read you are a Grandmaster at Bridge. This is clearly not something that most mortals can achieve. Does one have to have a genius IQ or equivalent to make money in the markets on a regular basis? MP: I have a belief that skills in a range of mind games are relevant for investing and trading. Relevant games include bridge, chess, backgammon and in particular poker. A good poker player knows when to hold and when to fold, as they say, which is all about looking at the potential reward versus the cost of shooting for that reward.

Goldcorp fires the starting gun on the great gold mining sale of the century By Chris Bailey of FinancialOrbit. If my analysis is right and gold does re-rate to that magnitude over — say — the next two or three years, any investor pointing the right way on gold will make very handsome returns. There is a complementary, but alternative, gold investing theme though.

One which offers more risk, but — as is always the way — even greater potential returns. And to understand this opportunity we are going to have to take a look at recent events in Canada. Canada may have been the birthplace of the current Governor of the Bank of England, but it rarely is the first country global investors pay attention to. That is a shame because the country is blessed with natural resources and generally sensibly financed banks; additionally as an economy it has materially outperformed its much highly profiled American cousin in both the couple of years before the global financial crisis and again subsequent to that.

Indeed, such was the perception of Canada being a bastion of good economic governance that it played a very large role in George Osborne woo-ing Mr Carney to our shores and where, if recent months are anything to go by, he is sprinkling some of his Canadian magic on our own domestic economy.

Well, most of the big North American gold companies have their primary listing north of the border. But even centuries of mining expertise and significant local resources have not stopped Canadian gold companies suffering from the malaise of missed production targets, higher mining costs and asset write-downs that have afflicted almost all gold companies worldwide.

Remember I mentioned earlier that higher risks generally go hand-in-hand with higher returns? Well, think about all the variables that go into making a gold mine work to plan. And then add in a falling gold price over the last year or two, just for fun. And this is where we come to events in Canada in mid-January. Valuations for the sector have reached such an extreme in terms of value and as relayed in this magazine ever more vociferously in recent months that there is, to me, only one way for this sector to go, and that is up.

Timing is everything with investments and, to me, the timing is now for gold related stocks. The big justification for gold as a purchasing power maintainer has never gone away, but it has got blurred by all the other noise, especially the fall in the gold price during Additionally, the number of gold companies reporting asset write-downs and production misses has also hugely reduced.

In short, no-one cares but conditions are stabilising — that is a well-worn recipe that usually bears fruits for the early adopters…. It is obvious that they know what they are trying to buy and what they observe is that gold companies like Osisko — as shown in the chart below — are really cheap, especially as it generates cash and has relatively low production costs. If they fail, it will be because it wakes up other shareholders and investors to the potential value opportunity.

So, it seems that whether heads or tails you win? Nothing of course is ever guaranteed in investing, but to me it is shining a light on the anomaly that is gold equity valuation and one that, at the time of writing, seems to be acting as a catalyst for a re-rating of the sector as a whole.

Will the bid succeed? Goldcorp used to have a holding in Osisko but sold it a number of years ago and booked a handsome profit. The table above shows where the stock was position as a function of its Price to NAV, and also in relation to other stocks within the sector.

So what lies ahead? I believe that a big global value-creating consolidation in the gold sector driven first by gold companies and then joined by well-heeled sovereign wealth funds is likely. I have positioned myself accordingly what I anticipate to be a sharp re-rating; have you?

We believe the Natural Resources arena is ripe for this strategy with the current depressed valuation. Nobody, and I mean nobody, gets it right all the time. Encouragingly though, simple statistics tell you that you can lose money many more times than you make money and still come out on top, and also vice versa. Anyone, for example, who has been a buyer of mining and precious metal stocks throughout and held the faith would have experienced quite a drag on their portfolio; the drag being dependent upon the magnitude of position exposure to the sector.

For investors like us who began buying the sector in the summer of , last year was not an enjoyable one. What we mean by this is that a trader must manage his drawdowns more acutely than an investor, particularly where leverage is concerned. An investor, in contrast, who is not geared or perhaps modestly geared and who does not trade his portfolio extensively can be somewhat more relaxed, particularly if the basis of his investment is fundamentally based, as opposed to quick fire technical analysis orientated.

Let me give you an example. Say you had bought into a basket of mining stocks back on those again, sorry! The trend was against you and it is pointless holding on. To us, this is one of the biggest myths in investing NOT in trading though and it is a method that none other than the greatest ever investor, Warren Buffet, also pooh-poohs.

IF your research is solidly based AND you are not stressed from a leverage perspective, then lower prices give you the opportunity to add to your position. Potato, potaatoo. Averaging down is, in fact, what many of us do each month without realising it when we make our pension contributions — we are merely smoothing out the investment cycle.

You can greedily take advantage of the new lower prices. Take a look at the two charts below which we will explain. What these illustrate are the expected returns based on historic patterns between value and growth stocks. The chart on the left shows that going into the tech bubble of that value stocks had become so undervalued, the anticipated outperformance reached dramatic proportions. The table to the right illustrates very starkly the drawdown remember this is ungeared! The danger for many that bought in too early is that after having experienced the emotional rollercoaster of a deep drawdown, you are so pleased to get back to the flat-line that you rush for the exit and so miss out on the re-rating.

Excessive greed and fear, without fail, always burn themselves out and so give way to the major trend changes. These major trend changes are exceedingly profitable to trade IF you can get in fairly early near the inflection points — this is what we believe we have been doing here at Titan in recent months. True contrarian investors attempt to do this: buying low when everyone else wants to sell, then later selling high when everyone else wants to buy.

Of course, to be a successful contrarian investor requires solid research. There is simply no substitute for this. And that is why Warren Buffet pooh-poohs the concept of cutting short a position where he has done his homework and prices have fallen — he takes the opportunity to re-assess the reason for the fall, and if nothing has fundamentally changed, then he buys again.

This is our own modus operandi here. We look to be brave when others are afraid and the only way to do this consistently is to buy low. Of course, fighting the crowd is never easy because your own emotions conspire to try to convince you to wrongly be excited or, in contrast, scared exactly when everyone else is. Very patient. Apply for an account today capitalspreads. Not all spread betting companies can say the same. The answer matters a lot when it comes to the sort of shares you decide to trade.

First of all, though, we need to identify the sectors in question. I define defensives as shares that do well when the market does badly, and cyclicals as the opposite. The accompanying table shows the most defensive and cyclical sectors according to my own three-part scoring system. The top three defensives of recent times are gas, water and multi-utility; pharmaceuticals; and tobacco, while the leading cyclicals are banks, industrial metals, and mining. Aside from the outlook for the economy, the main thing to picking between cyclicals and defensives is valuation.

When one group is very cheap compared to the other, a strong spell of outperformance by the cheap often follows. Right now, defensives are somewhat cheap compared to cyclicals. However, this is more of an issue for longer-term investors than traders. Ideally, I like to buy cheaper shares from each category that are also showing momentum, and short where the opposite applies.

AstraZeneca During recessions, the UK pharmaceuticals industry has consistently proved to be a solid investment, outperforming the wider market easily. For now, the economy is actually in robust good health, but AstraZeneca is also showing A1 fitness.

The share price has lately finally broken up decisively through the p level that it had previously struggled to get much beyond for more than a dozen years. Decisive breakouts to new all-time highs are unequivocally bullish in technical analysis. British American Tobacco Tobacco is one of the cheaper defensive groupings right now, based on its dividend yield.

During that time, it has shed slightly more than one-fifth of its peak value. BAT is already on my watch-list to buy for my longer-term investment portfolio. On a near-term speculative view, though, I can really only think of short-selling it. The price has recently gone below its late lows in the p region, but has yet to reach oversold extremes on a weekly or monthly view.

That leaves plenty of scope for selling, perhaps into the p region. My preferred shorting entry-point would be the end of a rally to around the day exponential moving average. Anglo American If you want to find cheapness among cyclical industries, look no further than the miners. The sector has been squeezed by the weakness of metals prices and rising costs. As a result of its fall from grace, UK mining sports a dividend yield above its five and ten-year averages, which is something that can be said for only one other economically-sensitive area.

The implication of this is that the price may head back to p over time. In the first place, a more obvious target lies at p. I would be looking to join the new uptrend if Anglo pulls back to its rising day EMA and then rallies anew. ARM Holdings Technology hardware and equipment has traditionally been a cyclical area of the stock market. In recent years, it has become less so, having performed reasonably well in the last three market sell-offs.

The obvious strategy in this situation is to try and get in after each of the periodic lurches lower. A crossover of the 21 and day exponential moving averages would bolster my view that the uptrend was resuming. January trading diary Is it February already?

How did that happen?! I hate February and so the Burns family is going to be spending all of half-term in Spain to at least get a bit of warmth. Things have changed a little in the last year however. Now a lot of the firms will give you a price right from the start of trading of a new one. The problem, really, is working out which new issues are worth buying and which might be stinkers.

How do you work it out? Here are the things I think about. How likely is it that whatever the company makes or produces will be in more and more demand in the future? There are largely two different types of floats. Aim and Main market ones. Starting with avoid. I have no idea whether they will find oil and in my experience it rarely happens, and after mug punters buy in at the start, shares usually drift. Pallets are apparently big business and the company has more exciting pallets that last a lot longer than others!!

A long time I suspect… Could I see the share price double up anytime soon? Now onto some where I think the share price could move higher reasonably quickly. City Fibre Infrastructure which connects businesses, local government and consumer customers to its networks looks interesting. This strikes me as being a potential future winner. Looks worth a shot. One that sneaked onto the market with no fanfare at all was Action Hotels.

What I really like is it is developing 3 and 4 star hotels in the Middle East and Australia, filling in a gap in the market between the top end and the bottom end. That seems a very sensible strategy to me, and not only can I imagine this hotel group growing, but I can also imagine it being snapped up by another group in time, so for me looks a sensible investment.

Same with MoPowered. An interesting little one It helps businesses to make more of their mobile offering — ensuring their sites are more compatible with those trying to buy services using mobiles. This is such a great growth market, one would think Mo Powered should really benefit if it gets its offering right. Risky of course, but the potential rewards outweigh the risks for now. Syqic is similar to Mopowered: high risk, but potential great returns if it gets its offering right.

This one is in the fast growing market of live TV and on-demand video content across mobile and tablets. The thing is, if you get one good one, then you can make an awful lot. For example, I did this with 3d Printing a US company. I figured 3d Printing was going to be a fantastic market in the future. If I had got that one wrong and it moved say below 19 dollars, I would have got out taking a loss. Anyways, as I said, new issues are a risky market — some flounder, but some make amazing gains.

Unless it doubles in a few days! See you next month in the next new issue of the Mag! Government is by far the largest bond issuer on earth. Although now aged 69, Gross seems far from being ready to head off into retirement and it seems will continue to act as an authoritative reference for bond investors for some years to come.

His mother, raised within a family of wheat farmers, and his father, a sales executive at AK Steel Holding, moved to Ohio in the U. At the age of 11 he moved to San Francisco, and at 22 graduated from Duke University in a field that is not as far away from the markets as you would initially think — psychology. He then served in the U.

It was his interest in finance and the financial markets that led him to complete the CFA charter later on. Cracking the Blackjack Tables As already established, he started his life by graduating in psychology, a field that may in fact be helping him to understand some of the irrational behaviour that we see today in the markets! In fact, it was a sequence of specific events that led Bill Gross to Wall Street, with some having been very unfortunate ones indeed Gross was involved in a very serious car accident in his final year at college which in fact sliced off much of his scalp.

It was whilst recovering that he read a book that was about to change his world, oddly about blackjack. Emboldened by his winnings, the seeds were set for the creation of a new career. The new venture was officially incorporated in with the founders being Bill Podich, Jim Muzzy, and of course Bill Gross; their specialisation being bonds. In they received their first big break, managing to bag a large client: a Fortune company looking for professional services to manage part of their fixed income portfolio.

In Gross published his first Investment Outlook, a monthly newsletter with commentary on economics and investing. It quickly gained popularity and became a widely read publication, sometimes in fact capable of actually moving markets. Bill Gross is directly involved in its management.

The company employs almost 2, professionals and has offices in the U. When markets open at 8. The fund management business, of course, requires much time and dedication and can be very stressful at times. When possible, Bill crosses the street that separates his office from the Marriott Hotel to partake in yoga lessons and find a little relaxation and release from the markets.

The blackjack tables gave Bill his initial education in terms of the application of mathematics in real world environments and risk perception. Unlike the very, very vast majority of analysts, Bill is good at predicting events before they happen, a skill of course that gives him a good edge over the average trader. At the time, he went as far as sending several of his own analysts out onto Main St. The idea was to get a proper insight about the state of the market.

At first glance you would see nothing wrong with this, but it was in fact the bailout decision taken by the Government to help the two mortgage goliaths that helped PIMCO lock-in that profit. Some of his peers commented that this was likely a decision to which Bill contributed, as he and PIMCO do influence the economy and policymakers.

Bill was always very vocal about the crisis, constantly urging the Government and the central bank to go further in their actions. He was a big advocator of the use of Government funds to replace private investors in key institutions. But it is not without problems that this issue unfolds Conflicts of interest are plain for all to see. Aggregate Bond Index was allocating Final Remarks Bill Gross has certainly made his mark in the fixed income markets by building the most powerful bond fund management the world has ever seen.

Since its inception, the Total Return Fund has consistently beaten the Barclays Bond Index and any other relevant benchmark, due in great part to the fund management capabilities of Gross and his risk management and macro analysis. But as we have repeatedly seen in a number of our fund manager in focus pieces, there comes a time when it is really difficult to repeatedly achieve the much-desired alpha.

When you trade with Capital Spreads you can relax in the knowledge that transparency is at the heart of everything we do. While this may be the start of a new paradigm in terms of a relentless rise in equities to make up for ultra-low interest rates and this asset class being a hedge against the inexorable decline in the value of fiat currencies, especially the US dollar we doubt that it will remain the case during … Just even thinking that a new pattern has begun in the financial markets usually sounds the death knell for it of course!

This was evidenced around the time of the Dot-com bubble, and leading into the financial crisis of as the gambling by leading investment houses combined with the nightmare of the sub-prime real estate fiasco in the US wrought havoc on equities. But it is difficult to believe that wide-scale money printing and the still major presence of massive sovereign debt, as well as fresh bubbles emerging in real estate, can only end in anything other than yet another doomsday scenario It is just a question of the timing!

An interesting clue as to how much of a house of cards we are witnessing as far as the US stock market currently is might be provided by the way that just as the indices continue to rise into the final quarter of , so have the number of profits warnings. The obvious interpretation of this state of affairs is that while a disconnect between the two phenomena may last for the short term — say a few months, it seems very difficult to conceive of an extended divergence.

Eventually the drip, drip of the warnings is likely to snap the great bull run…. The point to be made here is that if the Nasdaq Composite does not experience a serious correction in say, the first few months of , it will be extremely hard to explain why. The aftermath of the Facebook FB IPO fiasco, the hysteria associated with the Twitter IPO and the roller coaster life for Apple AAPL shares all underline the way that even if this is not a toppy asset class, it is certainly one where there has been a struggle to find a correct valuation.

Technicals: What is clear from the daily chart of the Nasdaq Composite over the past year is that those going short here will not have had an enjoyable ride at best, and may have suffered hefty losses at worst, by assuming that the mega bull run was set to end.

The present position of this market illustrates the issues that would-be bears will have had to face. The normal pattern with such extended oscillator lines is for them to continue longer than traders expect, but then lead to significant and sharp breakdowns when they finally occur.

While the nature of such moves makes them notoriously difficult to get on the back of, it may very well be the case that we should be primed for a reversal. This could be on tap while there is no end of day close back above the July price channel top at 4, The expectation is that there will then need to be a test for support back towards the November intraday support at 3, The timeframe on such a move is seen as being as soon as the end of February.

Recent Significant Newsflow: December A potential warning to stock investors: The fourth-quarter earnings pre-announcement season is shaping up to be the most negative on record. In what seems like a major disconnect, the number of profit warnings relative to upbeat guidance is the widest it has ever been — at a time when the U.

The to-one ratio is significantly worse than the previous record of 6. The long-term average is 2. December For every 10 companies warning of lower-than-expected profits for the fourth quarter, less than one says it will beat forecasts.

The total U. For instance, despite the all too frequent new roll out of iPads, iPhones and iPods, Apple AAPL has struggled to maintain its earnings momentum, its share price and investor sentiment. Internet search giant Google GOOG may have avoided such doubts, but there must be few in the investment community who regard the stock as representing value.

As stated in the Recommendation Summary, it is likely to be the case that even the greatest fans of tech stocks would be hard pushed to argue successfully that we have not been treated to a build up of steam over the past couple of years in this sector and where many of the issues which were attached to the Dot-com bubble in are visible again now. Of course, the problem with bubbles of all varieties is that they tend to be of such magnitude, both in terms of the explosion in price multiples and longevity, that participants are lulled into a false sense of security just before the inevitable meltdown arrives.

So far, the bulls have been rewarded for their patience; with the rise and rise of the stock in likely to mean that even if the valuation heads to the stratosphere, they will still refuse to head for the exit even when it really is time to do so. In , the U. Before the actual election, in October we conducted a study regarding the influence that the political cycle has on equity performance in order to allow us to assess the odds of receiving a particular market performance after an election year.

Our data showed that the first year after an election usually translates into worse than average performance, even though it also showed that performance significantly differs whether the elected President is a Democrat or a Republican. While the average annual performance had been around 8. With Barrack Obama being elected, investors thus had history on their side and so good reason to expect a very good performance during So what does the historic record have to say about the second year after an election — traditionally a time when the governing administration is getting to grips with tough policies before the third and fourth year attempt to engineer an election feel-good factor?

Is the second year of a mandate worse than average? Is there also a big difference in performance between Democrats and Republicans again? These are some of the questions that we will attempt to answer in this article…. With the first year after an election usually delivering worse than average returns, it seems that was the exception to the norm, an outlier.

Considering the fact that we had a Democrat President which has proved to be a boon for the stock market in the year after an election and an expansionary FED at the same time, this was a winning recipe for investors. Presidential Election Cycle Theory The theory that explains the correlation between political and economic cycles is relatively simple to understand. The idea is that in years one and two after being elected, a President gets to work on his promises, enacting economically difficult policies first while he has time on his side for them to bear fruit.

This of course takes time to materialise into positive performance. As we enter the third year the President becomes concerned with the approaching election as he wants to maximise the chances of being re-elected or, in the event that it is his last term, the chances of his Party again being elected.

The best market performances typically come in the third year and also being better than the last year of the cycle — the fourth year. During this period there were actually 22 elections. Our computed performance includes not only nominal price changes but also incorporates dividends. In order to analyse the expected effect from the last election the 22nd in our dataset , data for that particular election is excluded from the averages.

Our database shows an average performance of When we specifically compute the performance for the second year after an election, the average performance declines to 8. During these second year terms of a Presidential term, the index actually rose 13 times while declining eight times. The proportion of winning years is thus around The above data seems to point to being another positive year, albeit potentially below average as the 8.

Testing The Theory The next table shows the average return in each of the four years. As predicted by theory, the third year is the best of all, where performance is almost double the performance experienced in any other year The next year in the rank is the fourth, showing an average performance of 9. The second and first are the worst ranked, showing performances of 8. So What To Expect In Since we are now heading into the second year of a Democrat Presidential term, the predicted performance is thus 9.

This number is of course positive, but still below the average, and which confirms that the second year of a mandate is very weak and per se may not be a good enough reason to invest in the stock market. In order to refine our conclusions we should now subdivide the performance by political party.

We can see in the first year that the performance is substantially different for a Democrat and a Republican President, with the average annual performances being We then ask what happens in other years, in particular during the second. However, as the FED starts tapering asset purchases, fears over how far they will go in this exercise and the effects of the gradual withdrawal of the liquidity injections are likely to prove a headwind for equities, particularly given the softening earnings outlook and lofty valuations.

Of course, the final outcome for the stock market depends on many factors other than the election year cycle: for example the overall health of the economy, wider governmental policy and of course monetary policy decisions by the Fed. The difference between parties is abysmal. Performance under a Democratic President is on average higher for every year of the mandate. The higher difference comes during the first year, but there is still a marked difference in the second year.

While under a Republican mandate we would be expecting a 7. In , QE3 was one of the most important factors explaining the stellar rise seen in the stock market, but; as the effects from QE fade, the FED continues its tapering and the US Government looks to implement more fiscal discipline with the debt trajectory going only one way; the extra boosters that were present in may not be as significant in That is something for equity bulls to consider.

With the historic record showing the second year as being the worst in a Democrat mandate, may not be the best of times to enter the market and it may in fact pay to start unfolding your equity position, especially after such a strong performance as that observed in The figure that printed lower than even the most pessimistic predictions cast serious doubts on whether the FOMC correctly assessed the timing and the need for reduced stimulus. The headline 6. The uncertainty caused by this development offered the opportunity to a lot of market doves to express their fears over a sluggish recovery rate throughout the New Year and many contemplated the difficult mission that the new Fed President, Janet Yellen, has been handed.

During the past week ending 19 Jan the dollar has recorded an impressive comeback rallying higher for four consecutive days — in fact this is the first time this has happened in four months. I think that we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. In my view, this lack of momentum was one of the key factors that exposed the dollar to such a sudden sell-off rally when economic indicators missed expectations like the recent NFP release.

What I mean here is that the dollar has the potential to gain ground versus the rest of the majors, but for this to happen we need more optimistic news coming out of the US. The previous economic news trend has done little to send the dollar higher over the previous month, and for this trend to pick up pace then again new data and new signs of accelerated recovery are needed.

Will they come? For daily updates on my views over the markets and interesting trading ideas and suggestions you can visit my latest financial site www. NewsletterPro is a daily financial newsletter prepared by market professionals, aimed at serious investors and traders and delivered to subscribers every morning by 7.

Name any sector or industry and China is more than likely to be either the biggest supplier or the biggest consumer. No matter in which asset class or geography you invest, you simply cannot ignore China. As with all rapid periods of development though, there were costs. A couple of months ago the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party met for a major policy meeting called the Third Plenum.

Normally these are dry as dust events full of slogans and political intrigues. The meeting in November was different though. Seven months earlier Xi Jinping had been elected as the new President of China and, as with any evolution in political leadership, change was in the air. The model of the previous thirty years had served China very well.

This latter spending radically changed the look of cities, setting off urbanisation, housing and transport network booms. Put all of that together, and high single digit growth rates in China, over the last few years, have become the norm. Others have been much more technical in nature. The best example of this is in local governments, far away from the glitz and glamour of Shanghai or the political power of Beijing.

The urbanisation, housing and transport network booms mentioned above need one key input to make them work: land. Local governments realised this and so started selling off land to the highest bidder. In itself this was no bad thing but, as with anything, a generation long boom meant that it did not take long for standards to start to slip.

The big problem has been that local governments have become addicted to this form of money raising. Across large parts of China, monolithic state-run enterprises have been propped up by local government subsidies for years. And it is extremely worrying how quickly some of these debts have built up. The urbanisation, housing and transport network boom was needed just to paper over the looming cracks.

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This is a series of practical, applicable lessons glued together by the personal experiences of a trader who has seen it all. The methods presented can be used to interpret the status of all markets. Learn the lessons and acquire the confidence and tools to trade any market successfully. Additional information : www. More than 5, terms related to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, banking, tax laws, and transactions in the various financial markets are presented alphabetically with descriptions.

This eighth edition has been updated to take account of new financial regulations and recent dramatic swings in equities, credit, and other financial resources. Readers will also find a list of financial abbreviations and acronyms as well as illustrative diagrams and charts. Cloud Charts teaches you all about the ichimoku technique now used by traders all over the world. The book covers everything you need to know to trade with ichimoku effectively.

Cloud Charts comes with a full introductory summary to the most useful technical analysis techniques and how to apply them with cloud charts. The book covers many groundbreaking ideas including multiple time frame analysis, combining clouds and other techniques, backtesting, and trading strategies. World markets collapsed. Many hedge fund, venture capital, and real asset managers suffered immense losses.

Yet the world has not ended. In fact, global macro hedge fund managers fared well. Those managers anchor their investment processes in risk rather than targeting outsized returns. Author Steven Drobny sheds light on how they managed risk and profited during the worst financial disaster since the Great Depression. This book contains revealing interviews with the managers who survived and prospered through the downturn. By using our website you agree to our use of cookies.

We can notify you when this item is back in stock. Home Contact us Help Free delivery worldwide. Free delivery worldwide. Bestselling Series. Harry Potter. Popular Features. Home Learning. Notify me. Description This title presents 3 new, exclusive strategies from a master spread bettor.

Take your spread betting to the next level with these proven, documented exclusive strategies - right out of the box. Spread betting expert and bestselling author Malcolm Pryor takes viewers through every stage of successfully setting up and executing three brand new spread betting strategies. Each with a thoroughly demonstrated edge, they work on all time frames and are suitable for traders of all levels of experience.

You can use them to start banking profits right away. This is a one-on-one course of unbeatable depth. A two-hour DVD with accompanying workbook, this is the most comprehensive one-on-one spread betting training course available. Pryor unveils the details of three strategies, both trend-following and counter-trend, with a blend of in-chart demonstration and to-camera presentation. Featuring more than 20 video modules, including - alongside the detailed explanation of the three strategies - this is a refresher on key trading concepts, plus advanced insights on adapting and constructing your own strategies.

You also get personal support from Malcolm and other traders via access to the exclusive members' area of our associated website. Table of contents Key Concepts - Key trading terms - 10 rules that winning spread bettors follow - Objectives and risk preferences - Trading with technical analysis Introductory Modules 1.

A winning trade 2. The dangers of not following the rules 3. Types of spread betting strategies 4.

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But if you want to make money from spread betting then it must be taken seriously and a disciplined, tactical approach is required. This book is the essential guide to get to the top of the mountain. Winning spread betting strategies: How to make money in the medium term in up, down and sideways markets Aug 27, From the author of the best seller 'The Financial Spread Betting Handbook' comes a book about constructing winning spread betting strategies.

Seven strategies are presented covering all types of market; up, down and sideways. Key ingredients for each strategy include overall market direction, entry and exit techniques and bet size determination. The strategies are used on a wide range of instruments including stocks, commodities and currencies, and trade duration tends to be in weeks.

Examples of each strategy are fully illustrated with charts and commentary - there are over charts in this book, taking the reader step by step through strategy implementation. The Financial Spread Betting Handbook, 3rd edition: The definitive guide to making money trading spread bets Mar 20, In this substantially revised and enhanced third edition, you will benefit from: - Updated details about computer hardware, trading software and price data products to reflect technological changes and new products coming to market.

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No responsibility for loss incurred by any person or corporate body acting or refraining to act as a result of reading material in this book can be accepted by the Publisher or the Author. The information provided by the Author is not offered as, nor should it be inferred to be, advice or recommendation to readers, since the financial circumstances of readers will vary greatly and investment or trading behaviour which may be appropriate for one reader is unlikely to be appropriate for others.

One of the big differences is that the winners use a structured approach. They plan their trades and use systems and techniques that in the long run give them an edge. They also keep their bet size at a level which will give their longer-term edge a chance to play out while still keeping them in the game during the inevitable shorter-term volatility. Some people perform detailed analysis of company results, poring over balance sheets, profit and loss statements, cash flow schedules and the like.

Others have expertise in strategic planning, marketing and sales, and can spot a company that seems to be going places. Others have corporate finance skills and try to make money by guessing the next takeover target. The technical analysis community believe that the study of price action alone can provide an edge — that certain patterns of price movement have predictive.

Open navigation menu. Close suggestions Search Search. Skip carousel. Carousel Previous. Carousel Next. What is Scribd? Find your next favorite book Become a member today and read free for 30 days Start your free 30 days. Create a List. Download to App. Length: pages 1 hour. Description Following on from the success of his first two books, 'The Financial Spread Betting Handbook' and 'Winning Spread Betting Strategies', Malcolm Pryor now provides the spread bettor with a detailed understanding of 7 key charting tools.

Each tool has a role to play in the success of the spread bettor, and the tools can be used in combination to construct powerful trading strategies. This new book is written in a punchy and economical style, presenting much of its teaching through carefully chosen examples of charts. The focus is on practical technical analysis techniques which are directly relevant to spread bettors and traders. Personal Finance. Home Books Personal Finance. About the author. He is a director of a consultancy practice, and is an expert at several games, including bridge where he has held the rank of Grandmaster for over a decade.

Related authors. Related to 7 Charting Tools for Spread Betting. Related Categories. Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners. Preface What this book covers In this book I explain seven technical analysis tools which can really make a difference to spread betting performance.

The seven tools covered are: ATR Directional movement Moving averages Support and resistance Oscillators Relative strength Momentum The focus is on practical use rather than academic theory. Who this book is for The book is for people with any level of technical analysis skills, from virtual beginners to advanced users. How this book is structured After this preface there is a short introduction — the main purpose of which is to explain the reasons for writing this book.

Each of the seven charting tools is explained in a separate chapter, all of which have the same structure: Background and construction. How to use this tool. This section focuses on how the tool is used in this book. Each chapter contains a detailed worked example of the tool in action. Each chapter finishes with a very brief final comment on the tool. Acknowledgements I have many people to thank for providing support advice and encouragement while writing this book.

I would like to thank Dr Van Tharp, friend and mentor. I would like to thank my parents, Maurice, who passed away in , and Marjorie. And most of all I would like to thank Karen, to whom this book is dedicated.

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Seems a really simple idea, but simple can still be useful. Zak: The markets change, do your methods change with it? MP: Absolutely. For instance, bear markets in stocks always seem to catch out spread bettors: they keep net long when they should be looking for shorts and ironically one of the great things about spread betting is that it is just as easy to go short as to go long.

Their approach tends to be counter trend: they tend to look to lay bets when other customers have piled in, and they also seem to lock in profit as soon as possible a bit like a trailing stop. Over trading comes in several forms: one being betting too much on an individual bet, another being having too many bets open at any one time, another being taking trades too frequently. The key is to have defined rules for each of these areas, so that when the trader trades, it is only ever in accordance with a defined strategy which the trader has already either tested or otherwise become comfortable with.

Unless they get stopped out, I am expecting to run them until September. Could you point us in the right direction as it is very often difficult to see the wood for the trees and very expensive to buy many books and courses in order to get it right in trading? Rightly or wrongly, I have a view that we have to do a lot of work to get proficient in investing or trading, which is why I used the analogy of climbing a mountain in the Financial Spread Betting Handbook.

You can get to the top of a mountain, but you have to prepare well and it is hard work. Zak: I have read you are a Grandmaster at Bridge. This is clearly not something that most mortals can achieve. Does one have to have a genius IQ or equivalent to make money in the markets on a regular basis? MP: I have a belief that skills in a range of mind games are relevant for investing and trading.

Relevant games include bridge, chess, backgammon and in particular poker. A good poker player knows when to hold and when to fold, as they say, which is all about looking at the potential reward versus the cost of shooting for that reward. Goldcorp fires the starting gun on the great gold mining sale of the century By Chris Bailey of FinancialOrbit. If my analysis is right and gold does re-rate to that magnitude over — say — the next two or three years, any investor pointing the right way on gold will make very handsome returns.

There is a complementary, but alternative, gold investing theme though. One which offers more risk, but — as is always the way — even greater potential returns. And to understand this opportunity we are going to have to take a look at recent events in Canada. Canada may have been the birthplace of the current Governor of the Bank of England, but it rarely is the first country global investors pay attention to. That is a shame because the country is blessed with natural resources and generally sensibly financed banks; additionally as an economy it has materially outperformed its much highly profiled American cousin in both the couple of years before the global financial crisis and again subsequent to that.

Indeed, such was the perception of Canada being a bastion of good economic governance that it played a very large role in George Osborne woo-ing Mr Carney to our shores and where, if recent months are anything to go by, he is sprinkling some of his Canadian magic on our own domestic economy. Well, most of the big North American gold companies have their primary listing north of the border. But even centuries of mining expertise and significant local resources have not stopped Canadian gold companies suffering from the malaise of missed production targets, higher mining costs and asset write-downs that have afflicted almost all gold companies worldwide.

Remember I mentioned earlier that higher risks generally go hand-in-hand with higher returns? Well, think about all the variables that go into making a gold mine work to plan. And then add in a falling gold price over the last year or two, just for fun. And this is where we come to events in Canada in mid-January. Valuations for the sector have reached such an extreme in terms of value and as relayed in this magazine ever more vociferously in recent months that there is, to me, only one way for this sector to go, and that is up.

Timing is everything with investments and, to me, the timing is now for gold related stocks. The big justification for gold as a purchasing power maintainer has never gone away, but it has got blurred by all the other noise, especially the fall in the gold price during Additionally, the number of gold companies reporting asset write-downs and production misses has also hugely reduced.

In short, no-one cares but conditions are stabilising — that is a well-worn recipe that usually bears fruits for the early adopters…. It is obvious that they know what they are trying to buy and what they observe is that gold companies like Osisko — as shown in the chart below — are really cheap, especially as it generates cash and has relatively low production costs. If they fail, it will be because it wakes up other shareholders and investors to the potential value opportunity. So, it seems that whether heads or tails you win?

Nothing of course is ever guaranteed in investing, but to me it is shining a light on the anomaly that is gold equity valuation and one that, at the time of writing, seems to be acting as a catalyst for a re-rating of the sector as a whole.

Will the bid succeed? Goldcorp used to have a holding in Osisko but sold it a number of years ago and booked a handsome profit. The table above shows where the stock was position as a function of its Price to NAV, and also in relation to other stocks within the sector.

So what lies ahead? I believe that a big global value-creating consolidation in the gold sector driven first by gold companies and then joined by well-heeled sovereign wealth funds is likely. I have positioned myself accordingly what I anticipate to be a sharp re-rating; have you? We believe the Natural Resources arena is ripe for this strategy with the current depressed valuation.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, gets it right all the time. Encouragingly though, simple statistics tell you that you can lose money many more times than you make money and still come out on top, and also vice versa. Anyone, for example, who has been a buyer of mining and precious metal stocks throughout and held the faith would have experienced quite a drag on their portfolio; the drag being dependent upon the magnitude of position exposure to the sector.

For investors like us who began buying the sector in the summer of , last year was not an enjoyable one. What we mean by this is that a trader must manage his drawdowns more acutely than an investor, particularly where leverage is concerned. An investor, in contrast, who is not geared or perhaps modestly geared and who does not trade his portfolio extensively can be somewhat more relaxed, particularly if the basis of his investment is fundamentally based, as opposed to quick fire technical analysis orientated.

Let me give you an example. Say you had bought into a basket of mining stocks back on those again, sorry! The trend was against you and it is pointless holding on. To us, this is one of the biggest myths in investing NOT in trading though and it is a method that none other than the greatest ever investor, Warren Buffet, also pooh-poohs.

IF your research is solidly based AND you are not stressed from a leverage perspective, then lower prices give you the opportunity to add to your position. Potato, potaatoo. Averaging down is, in fact, what many of us do each month without realising it when we make our pension contributions — we are merely smoothing out the investment cycle. You can greedily take advantage of the new lower prices. Take a look at the two charts below which we will explain.

What these illustrate are the expected returns based on historic patterns between value and growth stocks. The chart on the left shows that going into the tech bubble of that value stocks had become so undervalued, the anticipated outperformance reached dramatic proportions. The table to the right illustrates very starkly the drawdown remember this is ungeared!

The danger for many that bought in too early is that after having experienced the emotional rollercoaster of a deep drawdown, you are so pleased to get back to the flat-line that you rush for the exit and so miss out on the re-rating. Excessive greed and fear, without fail, always burn themselves out and so give way to the major trend changes. These major trend changes are exceedingly profitable to trade IF you can get in fairly early near the inflection points — this is what we believe we have been doing here at Titan in recent months.

True contrarian investors attempt to do this: buying low when everyone else wants to sell, then later selling high when everyone else wants to buy. Of course, to be a successful contrarian investor requires solid research. There is simply no substitute for this. And that is why Warren Buffet pooh-poohs the concept of cutting short a position where he has done his homework and prices have fallen — he takes the opportunity to re-assess the reason for the fall, and if nothing has fundamentally changed, then he buys again.

This is our own modus operandi here. We look to be brave when others are afraid and the only way to do this consistently is to buy low. Of course, fighting the crowd is never easy because your own emotions conspire to try to convince you to wrongly be excited or, in contrast, scared exactly when everyone else is.

Very patient. Apply for an account today capitalspreads. Not all spread betting companies can say the same. The answer matters a lot when it comes to the sort of shares you decide to trade. First of all, though, we need to identify the sectors in question.

I define defensives as shares that do well when the market does badly, and cyclicals as the opposite. The accompanying table shows the most defensive and cyclical sectors according to my own three-part scoring system. The top three defensives of recent times are gas, water and multi-utility; pharmaceuticals; and tobacco, while the leading cyclicals are banks, industrial metals, and mining. Aside from the outlook for the economy, the main thing to picking between cyclicals and defensives is valuation.

When one group is very cheap compared to the other, a strong spell of outperformance by the cheap often follows. Right now, defensives are somewhat cheap compared to cyclicals. However, this is more of an issue for longer-term investors than traders. Ideally, I like to buy cheaper shares from each category that are also showing momentum, and short where the opposite applies.

AstraZeneca During recessions, the UK pharmaceuticals industry has consistently proved to be a solid investment, outperforming the wider market easily. For now, the economy is actually in robust good health, but AstraZeneca is also showing A1 fitness. The share price has lately finally broken up decisively through the p level that it had previously struggled to get much beyond for more than a dozen years. Decisive breakouts to new all-time highs are unequivocally bullish in technical analysis.

British American Tobacco Tobacco is one of the cheaper defensive groupings right now, based on its dividend yield. During that time, it has shed slightly more than one-fifth of its peak value. BAT is already on my watch-list to buy for my longer-term investment portfolio. On a near-term speculative view, though, I can really only think of short-selling it.

The price has recently gone below its late lows in the p region, but has yet to reach oversold extremes on a weekly or monthly view. That leaves plenty of scope for selling, perhaps into the p region. My preferred shorting entry-point would be the end of a rally to around the day exponential moving average. Anglo American If you want to find cheapness among cyclical industries, look no further than the miners. The sector has been squeezed by the weakness of metals prices and rising costs.

As a result of its fall from grace, UK mining sports a dividend yield above its five and ten-year averages, which is something that can be said for only one other economically-sensitive area. The implication of this is that the price may head back to p over time. In the first place, a more obvious target lies at p. I would be looking to join the new uptrend if Anglo pulls back to its rising day EMA and then rallies anew.

ARM Holdings Technology hardware and equipment has traditionally been a cyclical area of the stock market. In recent years, it has become less so, having performed reasonably well in the last three market sell-offs.

The obvious strategy in this situation is to try and get in after each of the periodic lurches lower. A crossover of the 21 and day exponential moving averages would bolster my view that the uptrend was resuming. January trading diary Is it February already? How did that happen?!

I hate February and so the Burns family is going to be spending all of half-term in Spain to at least get a bit of warmth. Things have changed a little in the last year however. Now a lot of the firms will give you a price right from the start of trading of a new one. The problem, really, is working out which new issues are worth buying and which might be stinkers.

How do you work it out? Here are the things I think about. How likely is it that whatever the company makes or produces will be in more and more demand in the future? There are largely two different types of floats. Aim and Main market ones. Starting with avoid. I have no idea whether they will find oil and in my experience it rarely happens, and after mug punters buy in at the start, shares usually drift. Pallets are apparently big business and the company has more exciting pallets that last a lot longer than others!!

A long time I suspect… Could I see the share price double up anytime soon? Now onto some where I think the share price could move higher reasonably quickly. City Fibre Infrastructure which connects businesses, local government and consumer customers to its networks looks interesting. This strikes me as being a potential future winner. Looks worth a shot. One that sneaked onto the market with no fanfare at all was Action Hotels. What I really like is it is developing 3 and 4 star hotels in the Middle East and Australia, filling in a gap in the market between the top end and the bottom end.

That seems a very sensible strategy to me, and not only can I imagine this hotel group growing, but I can also imagine it being snapped up by another group in time, so for me looks a sensible investment. Same with MoPowered. An interesting little one It helps businesses to make more of their mobile offering — ensuring their sites are more compatible with those trying to buy services using mobiles. This is such a great growth market, one would think Mo Powered should really benefit if it gets its offering right.

Risky of course, but the potential rewards outweigh the risks for now. Syqic is similar to Mopowered: high risk, but potential great returns if it gets its offering right. This one is in the fast growing market of live TV and on-demand video content across mobile and tablets. The thing is, if you get one good one, then you can make an awful lot.

For example, I did this with 3d Printing a US company. I figured 3d Printing was going to be a fantastic market in the future. If I had got that one wrong and it moved say below 19 dollars, I would have got out taking a loss. Anyways, as I said, new issues are a risky market — some flounder, but some make amazing gains. Unless it doubles in a few days! See you next month in the next new issue of the Mag!

Government is by far the largest bond issuer on earth. Although now aged 69, Gross seems far from being ready to head off into retirement and it seems will continue to act as an authoritative reference for bond investors for some years to come. His mother, raised within a family of wheat farmers, and his father, a sales executive at AK Steel Holding, moved to Ohio in the U. At the age of 11 he moved to San Francisco, and at 22 graduated from Duke University in a field that is not as far away from the markets as you would initially think — psychology.

He then served in the U. It was his interest in finance and the financial markets that led him to complete the CFA charter later on. Cracking the Blackjack Tables As already established, he started his life by graduating in psychology, a field that may in fact be helping him to understand some of the irrational behaviour that we see today in the markets!

In fact, it was a sequence of specific events that led Bill Gross to Wall Street, with some having been very unfortunate ones indeed Gross was involved in a very serious car accident in his final year at college which in fact sliced off much of his scalp. It was whilst recovering that he read a book that was about to change his world, oddly about blackjack.

Emboldened by his winnings, the seeds were set for the creation of a new career. The new venture was officially incorporated in with the founders being Bill Podich, Jim Muzzy, and of course Bill Gross; their specialisation being bonds. In they received their first big break, managing to bag a large client: a Fortune company looking for professional services to manage part of their fixed income portfolio.

In Gross published his first Investment Outlook, a monthly newsletter with commentary on economics and investing. It quickly gained popularity and became a widely read publication, sometimes in fact capable of actually moving markets. Bill Gross is directly involved in its management. The company employs almost 2, professionals and has offices in the U. When markets open at 8. The fund management business, of course, requires much time and dedication and can be very stressful at times.

When possible, Bill crosses the street that separates his office from the Marriott Hotel to partake in yoga lessons and find a little relaxation and release from the markets. The blackjack tables gave Bill his initial education in terms of the application of mathematics in real world environments and risk perception. Unlike the very, very vast majority of analysts, Bill is good at predicting events before they happen, a skill of course that gives him a good edge over the average trader.

At the time, he went as far as sending several of his own analysts out onto Main St. The idea was to get a proper insight about the state of the market. At first glance you would see nothing wrong with this, but it was in fact the bailout decision taken by the Government to help the two mortgage goliaths that helped PIMCO lock-in that profit.

Some of his peers commented that this was likely a decision to which Bill contributed, as he and PIMCO do influence the economy and policymakers. Bill was always very vocal about the crisis, constantly urging the Government and the central bank to go further in their actions.

He was a big advocator of the use of Government funds to replace private investors in key institutions. But it is not without problems that this issue unfolds Conflicts of interest are plain for all to see. Aggregate Bond Index was allocating Final Remarks Bill Gross has certainly made his mark in the fixed income markets by building the most powerful bond fund management the world has ever seen.

Since its inception, the Total Return Fund has consistently beaten the Barclays Bond Index and any other relevant benchmark, due in great part to the fund management capabilities of Gross and his risk management and macro analysis. But as we have repeatedly seen in a number of our fund manager in focus pieces, there comes a time when it is really difficult to repeatedly achieve the much-desired alpha.

When you trade with Capital Spreads you can relax in the knowledge that transparency is at the heart of everything we do. While this may be the start of a new paradigm in terms of a relentless rise in equities to make up for ultra-low interest rates and this asset class being a hedge against the inexorable decline in the value of fiat currencies, especially the US dollar we doubt that it will remain the case during … Just even thinking that a new pattern has begun in the financial markets usually sounds the death knell for it of course!

This was evidenced around the time of the Dot-com bubble, and leading into the financial crisis of as the gambling by leading investment houses combined with the nightmare of the sub-prime real estate fiasco in the US wrought havoc on equities. But it is difficult to believe that wide-scale money printing and the still major presence of massive sovereign debt, as well as fresh bubbles emerging in real estate, can only end in anything other than yet another doomsday scenario It is just a question of the timing!

An interesting clue as to how much of a house of cards we are witnessing as far as the US stock market currently is might be provided by the way that just as the indices continue to rise into the final quarter of , so have the number of profits warnings.

The obvious interpretation of this state of affairs is that while a disconnect between the two phenomena may last for the short term — say a few months, it seems very difficult to conceive of an extended divergence. Eventually the drip, drip of the warnings is likely to snap the great bull run…. The point to be made here is that if the Nasdaq Composite does not experience a serious correction in say, the first few months of , it will be extremely hard to explain why.

The aftermath of the Facebook FB IPO fiasco, the hysteria associated with the Twitter IPO and the roller coaster life for Apple AAPL shares all underline the way that even if this is not a toppy asset class, it is certainly one where there has been a struggle to find a correct valuation.

Technicals: What is clear from the daily chart of the Nasdaq Composite over the past year is that those going short here will not have had an enjoyable ride at best, and may have suffered hefty losses at worst, by assuming that the mega bull run was set to end.

The present position of this market illustrates the issues that would-be bears will have had to face. The normal pattern with such extended oscillator lines is for them to continue longer than traders expect, but then lead to significant and sharp breakdowns when they finally occur.

While the nature of such moves makes them notoriously difficult to get on the back of, it may very well be the case that we should be primed for a reversal. This could be on tap while there is no end of day close back above the July price channel top at 4, The expectation is that there will then need to be a test for support back towards the November intraday support at 3, The timeframe on such a move is seen as being as soon as the end of February.

Recent Significant Newsflow: December A potential warning to stock investors: The fourth-quarter earnings pre-announcement season is shaping up to be the most negative on record. In what seems like a major disconnect, the number of profit warnings relative to upbeat guidance is the widest it has ever been — at a time when the U. The to-one ratio is significantly worse than the previous record of 6. The long-term average is 2.

December For every 10 companies warning of lower-than-expected profits for the fourth quarter, less than one says it will beat forecasts. The total U. For instance, despite the all too frequent new roll out of iPads, iPhones and iPods, Apple AAPL has struggled to maintain its earnings momentum, its share price and investor sentiment.

Internet search giant Google GOOG may have avoided such doubts, but there must be few in the investment community who regard the stock as representing value. As stated in the Recommendation Summary, it is likely to be the case that even the greatest fans of tech stocks would be hard pushed to argue successfully that we have not been treated to a build up of steam over the past couple of years in this sector and where many of the issues which were attached to the Dot-com bubble in are visible again now.

Of course, the problem with bubbles of all varieties is that they tend to be of such magnitude, both in terms of the explosion in price multiples and longevity, that participants are lulled into a false sense of security just before the inevitable meltdown arrives. So far, the bulls have been rewarded for their patience; with the rise and rise of the stock in likely to mean that even if the valuation heads to the stratosphere, they will still refuse to head for the exit even when it really is time to do so.

In , the U. Before the actual election, in October we conducted a study regarding the influence that the political cycle has on equity performance in order to allow us to assess the odds of receiving a particular market performance after an election year. Our data showed that the first year after an election usually translates into worse than average performance, even though it also showed that performance significantly differs whether the elected President is a Democrat or a Republican.

While the average annual performance had been around 8. With Barrack Obama being elected, investors thus had history on their side and so good reason to expect a very good performance during So what does the historic record have to say about the second year after an election — traditionally a time when the governing administration is getting to grips with tough policies before the third and fourth year attempt to engineer an election feel-good factor?

Is the second year of a mandate worse than average? Is there also a big difference in performance between Democrats and Republicans again? These are some of the questions that we will attempt to answer in this article….

With the first year after an election usually delivering worse than average returns, it seems that was the exception to the norm, an outlier. Considering the fact that we had a Democrat President which has proved to be a boon for the stock market in the year after an election and an expansionary FED at the same time, this was a winning recipe for investors.

Presidential Election Cycle Theory The theory that explains the correlation between political and economic cycles is relatively simple to understand. The idea is that in years one and two after being elected, a President gets to work on his promises, enacting economically difficult policies first while he has time on his side for them to bear fruit.

This of course takes time to materialise into positive performance. As we enter the third year the President becomes concerned with the approaching election as he wants to maximise the chances of being re-elected or, in the event that it is his last term, the chances of his Party again being elected.

The best market performances typically come in the third year and also being better than the last year of the cycle — the fourth year. During this period there were actually 22 elections. Our computed performance includes not only nominal price changes but also incorporates dividends. In order to analyse the expected effect from the last election the 22nd in our dataset , data for that particular election is excluded from the averages.

Our database shows an average performance of When we specifically compute the performance for the second year after an election, the average performance declines to 8. During these second year terms of a Presidential term, the index actually rose 13 times while declining eight times.

The proportion of winning years is thus around The above data seems to point to being another positive year, albeit potentially below average as the 8. Testing The Theory The next table shows the average return in each of the four years. As predicted by theory, the third year is the best of all, where performance is almost double the performance experienced in any other year The next year in the rank is the fourth, showing an average performance of 9.

The second and first are the worst ranked, showing performances of 8. So What To Expect In Since we are now heading into the second year of a Democrat Presidential term, the predicted performance is thus 9. This number is of course positive, but still below the average, and which confirms that the second year of a mandate is very weak and per se may not be a good enough reason to invest in the stock market.

In order to refine our conclusions we should now subdivide the performance by political party. We can see in the first year that the performance is substantially different for a Democrat and a Republican President, with the average annual performances being We then ask what happens in other years, in particular during the second. However, as the FED starts tapering asset purchases, fears over how far they will go in this exercise and the effects of the gradual withdrawal of the liquidity injections are likely to prove a headwind for equities, particularly given the softening earnings outlook and lofty valuations.

Of course, the final outcome for the stock market depends on many factors other than the election year cycle: for example the overall health of the economy, wider governmental policy and of course monetary policy decisions by the Fed. The difference between parties is abysmal. Performance under a Democratic President is on average higher for every year of the mandate.

The higher difference comes during the first year, but there is still a marked difference in the second year. While under a Republican mandate we would be expecting a 7. In , QE3 was one of the most important factors explaining the stellar rise seen in the stock market, but; as the effects from QE fade, the FED continues its tapering and the US Government looks to implement more fiscal discipline with the debt trajectory going only one way; the extra boosters that were present in may not be as significant in That is something for equity bulls to consider.

With the historic record showing the second year as being the worst in a Democrat mandate, may not be the best of times to enter the market and it may in fact pay to start unfolding your equity position, especially after such a strong performance as that observed in The figure that printed lower than even the most pessimistic predictions cast serious doubts on whether the FOMC correctly assessed the timing and the need for reduced stimulus.

The headline 6. The uncertainty caused by this development offered the opportunity to a lot of market doves to express their fears over a sluggish recovery rate throughout the New Year and many contemplated the difficult mission that the new Fed President, Janet Yellen, has been handed.

During the past week ending 19 Jan the dollar has recorded an impressive comeback rallying higher for four consecutive days — in fact this is the first time this has happened in four months. I think that we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. In my view, this lack of momentum was one of the key factors that exposed the dollar to such a sudden sell-off rally when economic indicators missed expectations like the recent NFP release. What I mean here is that the dollar has the potential to gain ground versus the rest of the majors, but for this to happen we need more optimistic news coming out of the US.

The previous economic news trend has done little to send the dollar higher over the previous month, and for this trend to pick up pace then again new data and new signs of accelerated recovery are needed. Will they come? For daily updates on my views over the markets and interesting trading ideas and suggestions you can visit my latest financial site www.

NewsletterPro is a daily financial newsletter prepared by market professionals, aimed at serious investors and traders and delivered to subscribers every morning by 7. Name any sector or industry and China is more than likely to be either the biggest supplier or the biggest consumer.

No matter in which asset class or geography you invest, you simply cannot ignore China. As with all rapid periods of development though, there were costs. A couple of months ago the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party met for a major policy meeting called the Third Plenum. Normally these are dry as dust events full of slogans and political intrigues. The meeting in November was different though. Seven months earlier Xi Jinping had been elected as the new President of China and, as with any evolution in political leadership, change was in the air.

The model of the previous thirty years had served China very well. This latter spending radically changed the look of cities, setting off urbanisation, housing and transport network booms. Put all of that together, and high single digit growth rates in China, over the last few years, have become the norm. Others have been much more technical in nature. The best example of this is in local governments, far away from the glitz and glamour of Shanghai or the political power of Beijing.

The urbanisation, housing and transport network booms mentioned above need one key input to make them work: land. Local governments realised this and so started selling off land to the highest bidder. In itself this was no bad thing but, as with anything, a generation long boom meant that it did not take long for standards to start to slip. The big problem has been that local governments have become addicted to this form of money raising. Across large parts of China, monolithic state-run enterprises have been propped up by local government subsidies for years.

And it is extremely worrying how quickly some of these debts have built up. The urbanisation, housing and transport network boom was needed just to paper over the looming cracks. No wonder investors and businesses have been bypassing the official banking system. We are not finished yet though. Where did all the money come from to buy land rights from local government? Counter trend sideways market, broad overview Counter trend sideways market, rule set Counter trend sideways market, example using daily charts Counter trend sideways market, example using weekly charts Counter trend sideways market, example using minute charts Strategy 3 Two time frames, broad overview Two time frames, rule set Two time frames, example using weekly and daily charts Two time frames, example using daily and hourly charts Two time frames, example using minute and 5-minute charts.

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