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We should wonder how much worse the last three months would have been without effective gatekeepers in the rank-and-file. A safe assumption for policymakers is that it will be a lot worse next time. A tiny degree of uncertainty persists, because most of these serving Republicans are far from died-in-the-wool Trumpites. They have opposed him occasionally, on huge issues. For instance they out-vetoed him on the recent Defense Bill — which includes a profoundly important clause banning dark money.
Their unwillingness to publicly discuss their own report, however, illustrated their fear. Whereas that story was noticed by a tiny percentage of engaged commentators, this Senate trial is in full view of his supporters. Click here to read the full article for betting. He survived the Access Hollywood tapes , the Mueller investigation, impeachment, the Woodward tapes. Last night, a new tape emerged that may ultimately surpass any of those scandals.
The only surprise is that anybody is surprised. Large numbers of armed Trump supporters are expected to gather in Washington D. The long-term ramifications could be huge. This is irrefutable evidence of a crime, compounding the vast legal peril he already faces upon becoming a private citizen. More immediately, the timing could not be worse for his party. On Tuesday, the final leg of the election marathon will be run. Two Senate races in Georgia will determine which party controls the Senate, and settle the last of my strong betting series.
In fact the Senate will be tied thanks to the support of two independents, and the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris will break that tie. Even disregarding the political significance, this is a cracking betting heat. Both races are close and all permutations are realistic. Our Sportsbook have priced up all four potential doubles as follows. Click here to read the full article, free of charge, for betting. As regular readers will have noted, its been a few months since my last post.
This was due to working non-stop during the US election run-in and a long overdue break once it became clear Biden had won. I wrote dozens of articles and contributed to numerous podcasts during that period for a wide variety of publications. Many will soon be uploaded to the archive for posterity.
A comfortable enough victory by historical standards but not a blowout. To call it a landslide, Biden would have at least needed to take Florida. Which brings us back to the question that has dominated the political forecasting community throughout — were the betting markets too favourable to Trump? Nobody has been more patronising on the matter than Nate Silver.
Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong , political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning—Kruger effect. How about actually running the race before judging the predictions? Now we have, it turns out the signals from Betfair were superior to the forecasting models. Our electoral college prediction was around to Biden, compared to odd among pollsters.
The favourite won in 49 out of 50 states. Only Georgia broke the trend. None of the pollsters predicted Trump would win Florida or North Carolina. In , every state favourite won. In , 45 out of 50 did. When we consider the Next President odds, I think the sceptics are vindicated again. Yes, Biden backers won. But so too will the traders who laid him at [1. He went as high as [5. Such drama seems a fundamental part of betting on US elections.
The way results come in inevitably skews the betting in one direction or another, as measuring what is left to come involves a level of expertise. As explained in my trading tips piece, the big urban, Democrat-leaning cities always declare last because they have more votes to count. The best plan is to have a full bank, minimal exposure and a clear head to monitor dozens of markets simultaneously.
There were big-priced opportunities galore to be found. But more than trading motivations, the long-term betting trends for this election revealed scepticism. That Biden was a strong enough candidate, or that the polls could be trusted. Trump made this election a lot closer by energising his base like never before. For an incumbent to increase their popular vote by over eight million is quite an achievement, for which there was no conventional signal.
It was enough to defy the polls in Florida and North Carolina. But more telling is that Michigan and Wisconsin were even close , when numerous forecasts had Biden double-digits ahead. This article first appeared here at casinovalley. Genuinely professional gamblers are rare, but my experience proves it is possible.
Many more have the expertise to consistently make a profit but prefer to keep their gambling as a side income to their main job. That was me for the decade before turning professional. Before leaving my normal job, I needed to prove to myself that I could win regularly and systematically over the course of a year, working part-time.
Half the hours of my full-time job, to make half my wage. A weekly schedule mapped out around live sport. Since turning pro, the number might range from 40 to 50 hours, but the planning still applies. It is really important to stick to the hours. Discipline is everything in gambling. This is an incredibly emotional, sometimes stressful, pastime.
Let alone when paying the bills depend upon it. A bigger reason for gamblers losing than simply picking bad bets is erratic, inconsistent staking. Back a winner, then bet more on the next one. Back a loser, bet bigger to chase the stake, run out of cash quickly. A is the most confident, so stake to earn 30 units profit.
B is the second best to earn 20 units. C is ranked third, to earn 10 units. To clarify, this example implies a bankroll of units. Stick to this staking plan rigidly. Not only will it keep your staking under control, but the process of ranking selections will also improve your decision making.
Another essential lesson. It is easy to fall into the trap of forgetting about losers or misrecalling winning streaks. Then commit to a date — every three months perhaps — to analyze all of these bets. Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at casinovalley. Betfair markets continue to diverge significantly from polling models, despite a stack of evidence emerging to disprove the narrative that Donald Trump enjoyed a bounce following the Republican Convention.
One frequently stated explanation is fear of history repeating itself. Remember , when Hillary Clinton was overwhelming favourite, but Trump defied the polls and the pundits. There is a narrative that Biden is no better a candidate and will suffer the same fate. Opponents claim he has dementia. There was no evidence of that in his conference speech.
Nor when returning to in-person campaigning last week. It is early days in the campaign, of course. We can, however, note the fundamental differences with Clinton. Start with the obvious. It is often said that women are at a disadvantage with the US electorate. Let alone Commander-in-Chiefs. In head-to-head polls versus Trump, Democrat men fared slightly better than women.
The differences between current polls and cannot be overstated. His Fivethirtyeight average lead over Trump is 7. A critical difference is undecideds or third parties. Their figure amounts to just 6. It resurfaced during the final days of the campaign, perhaps to decisive effect.
Even during the last five years of dramatic political betting, I cannot recall anything quite like the last week. An avalanche of money poured on Donald Trump to be re-elected — on an unprecedented scale for this stage of the contest — dramatically altering the odds.
First, Trump supporters feeling pumped after what they regarded a successful convention. That exacerbated other market characteristics, such as — gender bias among gamblers and Trump supporters. Fears the election will be rigged. Third, relentless propaganda regarding the violence, Biden and fake polls. The effect of these last two, plus lack of trust in the process, are legitimate warnings against complacency for Biden backers.
Let me restate important facts with regards Trump lost the popular vote, with 63M in total and He won the electoral college by edging three key states by a combined margin of just 77K votes. Turnout among key Democrat-leaning segments — black and young voters — was depressed. In other words, Republicans were the more popular party, better motivated and therefore benefited from differential turnout. Yet Trump still only won by the narrowest of margins. To win again, there is no margin for error.
Actually he needs to improve on that performance, amid less favourable conditions. Highly unlikely, given that the increased turnout seen since has mostly benefited Democrats and come from voter segments likelier to lean blue — women, minorities, young. Liberal enthusiasm has been evident across the board — whether special elections, primaries or even for the Supreme Court in marginal Wisconsin.
That advantage can be seen in state after state. The largest number are Independents — a group that splits against Trump. From winning the House by 1. Generic Congressional polls have consistently confirmed that picture before and after those mid-terms elections. Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at gamblerspick. This article first appeared at betting. The year represented the birth of the post-truth world and that depressing state of affairs is now the norm.
This election will see more sophisticated propaganda and disinformation than ever before. For example, they superimposed Joe Biden over real footage of Harry Belafonte falling asleep during an interview. China and Iran are both reportedly targeting US voters and other countries such as the UAE were reportedly active in To avoid being blindsided in our betting by fakery, we need reliable, trustworthy sources of information.
Facts to cut through the speculation. If the last election is any sort of guide, there will be moments, spells, of high drama. We will be bombarded by competing narratives and the truth may initially be elusive. One important example involved the fake news targeted at Hillary Clinton. All year long, right-wing media were predicting she would be indicted before polling day. She was dying. Or already dead — the pneumonia victim was a double.
The next 24 hours were on Betfair were as crazy as I can ever recall. These alternative Democrats were traded back and forth at unrealistically low odds throughout the rest of the campaign. Whilst most of that fake news was generated anonymously online, there was plenty in the mainstream too. His odds fell within minutes.
Nor was the Wikileaks release of information hacked by Russia restricted to online. There is a plethora of polls around including plenty of fakes. They rank each firm on performance and ban offenders. Place special emphasis on these A-rated pollsters. In addition to Fivethirtyeight, there are several excellent election sites that aggregate polls and forecast results.
What of the mainstream media in an age when trust is so low? We have never known more about their imperfections. Nobody, absolutely nobody, is completely neutral about politics. Nevertheless they are an infinitely superior resource than memes or anonymous online accounts. Unofficially and metaphorically, the starting pistol for the closing, intense stretch of the general election campaign is fired following the Labor Day holiday weekend.
According to the signals coming from Betfair markets, Joe Biden and Donald Trump head into it with virtually equal chances. You can see all the latest from the key swing states on our carousel. Biden later edged marginally ahead and remains the slight favourite.
He has not enjoyed a significant post-convention bounce in the polls to mirror his advance in the betting. Far from it. There had been some confusion, due to a dearth of high-quality live interview polls during the second half of August.
So when the likes of Emerson, or less plausibly Rasmussen or Trafalgar, published positive numbers for Trump, they had a greater impact than usual on the news cycle. No longer. A vast array of new surveys arrived yesterday and they were almost all bad news for Trump. Here are the latest national numbers, along with the Fivethirtyeight rating for each pollster.
To that end, however, the numbers from individual states are similarly grim. Most significantly, the state that has seen the worst violence in recent days shows no sign of turning towards Trump. Later today, Joe Biden will resume in-person campaigning with an address in Pennsylvania, in which the Democrat nominee will doubtless emphasise his working-class roots in Scranton.
The deadly violence we saw overnight in Portland is unacceptable. Shooting in the streets of a great American city is unacceptable. I condemn violence of every kind by anyone, whether on the left or the right. And I challenge Donald Trump to do the same. Many had hoped that Biden would head straight to Wisconsin, where the town of Kenosha has suffered rioting following the shooting by police of Jacob Blake and two protesters subsequently shot dead by a year-old vigilante.
Instead, Trump gets first crack at delivering a presidential style address in the traumatised state. Again, we need not get the crystal ball out. All this takes place amid deep uncertainty regarding the state of the race. Record sums continue to pour in for Trump, who has almost resumed favouritism on Betfair.
One of several plausible explanations for this monster gamble is the violence in Kenosha and Portland. Setting the agenda, framing the narrative , as they did so frequently in Plus another popular narrative is emerging, that the race is narrowing in a meaningful sense. Various polling experts seemed rather irritated about this last night. Extremely frustrating to see people who should know better parroting this stuff. Political betting markets have become so dumb as to perhaps be a contrarian indicator at this point.
The experts are right to urge caution. Following the Democrat and Republican conventions, the verdict from Betfair punters is clear. Donald Trump has a considerably better chance of re-election than he did when they started. Indeed yet again, Trump is making political betting history. When Bush won, his odds increased by 5. Obama increased by 3. Note too this bounce is nearly four times the scale of the one Trump enjoyed in How much store should we would place in these moves?
Should punters jump on this bandwagon or do the moves in fact make Joe Biden the superior value? In my view, Trump is entitled to judge the convention a success. Critics and internal opponents were nowhere to be seen. His party is now both loyal and on this public evidence, devoted to their leader. That said, any assumption that the convention played well with the public is exactly that.
There is little or no evidence of improving polls. Public engagement with both conventions was down on One plausible explanation for the gamble is that Trump supporters and backers were in such high spirits, they put their money where their mouths are. According to the first polls taken following the Democrat Convention, Joe Biden has not received a bounce. Simultaneously, the betting trends have moved against him.
The lack of bounce may or may not explain the market trend. The move was already underway. Now, we shall see whether Trump gets a bounce after his own convention as the Republicans meet in Charlotte, North Carolina. He certainly did following their convention, briefly overtaking Hillary Clinton in popular vote polls.
Equally though, remember that opinion has been extraordinarily consistent and entrenched since Trump took office. It is quite possible, perhaps likely, that we again see very little change. One profound difference with was the unity. Four years ago the DNC proceedings began with disaster. This convention passed off without any such incident.
The fact it was socially distanced was a great help, as it prevented footage of argument or protests however small being amplified. Rather the party came across as absolutely focused on defeating Trump. Whether left-wingers such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Elizabeth Warren or centrists such as Clinton, the message was consistent.
Avoid complacency. Remove this unique threat to democracy. In that respect they can also count upon a growing number of Republicans. For months, Team Trump has been painting the 77 year-old former VP as a sleepy figure, struggling with dementia, who can barely finish a sentence. Having set such a low bar, Biden was always likely to exceed expectations.
But it was competently delivered, without pauses or errors. Nor was any evidence of mindrot on view in his setpiece interview with ABC. Thus, many worries were assuaged. One speech stood out above the rest, in terms of delivery, potency and significance.
Presidents shy away from criticising their predecessors, let alone get involved in elections. This piece first appeared at betting. It is my initial reaction to the VP selection. After months of drama, it turns out the market was right all along. The California Senator would have led the betting from start to finish, were it not for a flip to Susan Rice just a few hours before the decision was announced.
Now, we must weigh her merit and value to the ticket. What difference, if any, will she make to the result? Quite the reverse. For sure, there are positives. Harris is a heavyweight. This former prosecutor is a strong debater and forensic interrogator in the Senate. She can deliver good lines and will be an effective attack dog during the campaign.
She will attract big donors. The first ever woman of colour on a major party ticket will inspire Democrat activists — a high percentage of whom are black women. Any Biden path to the presidency hangs around the black vote in swing states. These are all reasons she was so high in the betting for the nomination and presidency.
They make sense on paper. Yet when it came to the primaries, despite a vast cash advantage over most rivals, she completely flopped. The likeliest specific explanation is that her well-publicised debate performances played badly. A classic hit-job, geared to creating viral media clips, but one that appeared cynical and harsh.
If not between the pair, bad blood still lingers between allies, apparently. Incidents like this cannot be understated. Even when a politician is relatively well-known, most voter perceptions of them are shallow, based on small nuggets. Most previously knew relatively little about Harris and this amplified, negative impression damaged her. She is now being introduced to a much larger audience. There has never been a mismatch like it in the history of political betting.
Polling models, however, paint a very different picture. I can think of least eight possible explanations. The final result was only 1. Polls in key states were further out but not on the scale required were the election today. At the biggest election since — the mid-terms — the polls were spot on. There is no strong third party splitting the anti-Trump vote. Perceptions can of course change during the campaign, especially about the much less defined Democrat.
Keeping a low profile from his basement has worked a treat for Biden, letting Trump damage himself over Covid, but that will change in September. The campaign will indeed be challenging for a 77 year-old, whom Team Trump say has dementia. Much earlier presidential bids were ruined by gaffes. However he may defy low expectations at set-piece moments. In the last two Democrat primary debates, Biden was widely deemed the clear winner. Trump also lost all three debates in by big margins.
US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed. Trump has already been impeached for bullying the Ukranian government over military aid in exchange for manufacturing dirt on Biden. His team are openly pursuing the same tactics and flagging it up on their media.
We will see what emerges and any effect. However scandal could just as easily hurt Trump, especially regarding his long-running legal problems and ongoing revelations about his ties to Russia. In either case, the impact needs to be big as polls show very few persuadable voters.
Trump is determined to restrict mail-in voting. There will be further voter suppression tactics. Mail-in votes will take a long time to settle, setting the stage for chaos. I do fear the worst on that front but the betting will be settled on votes, regardless of whatever chaos ensues. Convention season is underway, with the Democrats going first in Milwaukee, followed by the Republicans in Charlotte from next Monday. Naturally, various stars of the Democrat party have dominated early proceedings, with one particularly standing out.
Team Biden is able to call upon one of the most popular and revered individuals in America in Michelle Obama. All highly predictable. More significant are the contributions from former Republicans. Monday saw former presidential candidate John Kasich address the convention.
Colin Powell for Joe Biden. Some grassroots Democrats were uneasy at having representatives from the enemy party speak at their convention. They are wrong. This is brilliant politics, demonstrating the vast anti-Trump coalition behind Biden. All three are notable. Powell also endorsed Obama so that was predictable, yet still good optics. The McCain family are yet to officially endorse but I expect they will and are timing the announcement for maximum effect.
Astonishingly, Trump continued to slate the Republican nominee and war hero after his death. Cindy McCain for Joe Biden. Daughter Meghan has a close relationship with Biden. They have talked publicly about grieving together — Biden is well-known to have suffered terrible personal tragedy.
Win here, as the polls consistently forecast, and Biden will become president. A former Governor of a bellwether state — Ohio. He previously served in the Bush administration. Kasich is anything but a Trumpite. He called out Trump and his agenda repeatedly during a bitter primary season, impressively staying above the fray when that chaotic contest descended into personal abuse.
When last discussing the US election for The Hub and in my extensive interview with Betfair , the betting was roughly tied. I argued the odds were wrong because numerous indicators pointed towards Joe Biden. The main odds open up various hedging opportunities using smaller markets. There is no way Trump wins the electoral college without Florida. Yet his odds for the former are comparable to the outright odds and much bigger for the latter percentage target.
If you fancy Trump, focus on those bets rather than the presidency. Regarding vote share, consider recent elections. One explanation was that partisanship already ran so deep that there were very few persuadables. Fivethirtyeight measure it at To win again in a more conventional two-horse race than , he needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest, or logical explanation why, he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.
Various electoral indicators paint a similar picture. Biden is well ahead in the key states, most notably the must-win Florida — a state with a large elderly, white population. They are trailing in key Senate races and even some traditionally safe states are competitive.
Of course, we must consider the counter-arguments. Events, scandals can change an election year. He still has decent economic numbers, despite the Covid disaster. Were a vaccine found, markets would soar. Plus be sure, Trump has all manner of unconventional tricks up his sleeve. The presidency is decided via an electoral college, for which each state awards a set number of votes ECVs to their winning candidate.
For example, Florida has 29 ECVs among the overall total of The winning target is On the night itself, the betting will update live with numerous firms, after the polls have closed. The betting can go wild. It is challenging because tallying up the ECVs requires fast maths and being able to weigh up the implications of each result as it emerges, from different time zones.
The majority of states are regarded as either safe Republican or Democrat, so the result always turns on five or six swing states. Therefore we begin our calculations with the shares minus one. Trump starts on The winning line is so he afford a net loss of The list shows every competitive state besides New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada was won by Trump in Therefore unless causing a big upset in any of those states, every state he loses subtracts from the tally.
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds. He trails by 6. Yet Trump is only 2. Surely it makes better sense to back him for FL than the presidency. Michigan looks a certain Democrat gain so, without that, he only has 21 in hand. Higher odds than for the presidency, as is the case in Wisconsin at 3.
Therefore, the best pro-Trump betting plan is to spread the stake around Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. According to the Washington Post , Joe Biden will announce his running mate at the end of next week, just ahead of the Democrat Convention. Given that a decision was originally expected by the start of August, it seems his choice remains far from certain. Last week was crazy, involving all sorts of media speculation and the odds about all the leading candidates fluctuating wildly.
Long-time favourite Kamala Harris crashed into odds-on, matched down to [1. She then drifted out beyond [2. This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama. Consider the trio rated closest to Harris. Susan Rice was matched earlier at [ Both Rice and Bass traded below [4. The process has been nothing like recent Democrat VP races. The thought process here is very different from most political markets. We are guessing to a large extent and dependent on mainstream media articles.
The weight of money behind Bass and Duckworth was unpredictable, significant and ultimately correct. Dream trades. Nevertheless, I remain sceptical of the Harris gamble and reckon her market status owes something to name recognition. There is evidently a lobby against her, as revealed by multiple press briefings. The principal charge is that ambition would make her a rival for the presidency. Her campaign had T-shirts made to celebrate the incident. It did her no good. Moreover it angered many people around Biden , including family members of his campaign team.
Her lack of remorse during a meeting with Biden ally Chris Dodd did not heal those wounds. For example one where she was made Attorney General, instead of VP. For me, this is a bigger negative than could be made for any of the other main contenders. They will portray Harris as a disloyal, over-ambitious, over-political left-wing prosecutor. Why take such a risk when, whatever her qualities, there is no evidence of her improving the ticket electorally, either via polls or any electoral college effect?
If Biden has indeed delayed his decision, surely that is bad for somebody who has been high on the shortlist from day one? Click here to read the full article at betting. Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets.
I don't think people realize how dumb and sometimes even irrational the prices are at political betting markets as compared to almost every other type of market which is not to say other markets are always rational, either. No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the odds and polling models.
While there are numerous possible explanations, one is blindingly obvious. Punters remember and how Trump defied the polls, pundits and betting. There is plenty of time to close the gap and become competitive. Only time will tell but Trump backers should beware of making a common mistake in re-fighting the previous election, assuming the same conditions will apply. They rarely do. Each election is unique , as are the candidates, dynamics and public perceptions at any given time. Of all recent elections, was the most predictable.
One might say an overdue endorsement of conventional form guides. Polls, leader ratings, MRP predictions and the consensus narrative all pointed towards a Tory majority. Corbyn and Labour had declined since Yet right up until the exit poll, a strong counter narrative held the Tory odds up, particularly in Labour-held target seats. Because these were targets where the Tories had failed badly in Labour had completely dumbfounded the polls and consensus narrative in , for various reasons.
Labour majorities generally rose in their heartlands. As it transpired, proved completely different. Boris Johnson cut through with Brexiters in ways Theresa May never could. Whereas UKIP without Farage failed to retain many converts, his new Brexit Party vehicle made substantial inroads into the Labour share where it mattered. Part of the explanation surely lies in pollsters and opponents learning lessons from the shock of and adapting their methods. The Labour comeback remains a bigger betting upset than either Trump or Brexit.
They got No overall majority was backed at double-digit odds. Even when the polls started to turn, few believed that younger people, especially aged , would turn out in such big numbers. When Survation and Yougov veered from the polling consensus and forecast a hung parliament, they were literally derided on live TV. Because people were assuming the same dynamics as and failing to factor in subsequent developments.
Brexit led to much greater engagement among younger voters. Corbyn inspired a new movement of activists, particularly online, where they dominated in Momentum changed the conversation from Brexit to austerity. The combination of these factors enabled Labour to monopolise the anti-Tory vote. Exactly days remain until the US election — a useful marker for the beginning of the final stretch.
While we await official confirmation at the party conventions, it would require something extremely dramatic to prevent Donald Trump and Joe Biden being the nominees. Current signals point strongly towards Biden , whose odds are steadily shortening on the exchange. The former Vice President is a 1. There is, however, plenty of time for change. This will be the fifth US election ever to be traded on Betfair.
In many respects, trading at the day stage was typical of that extraordinary race — a landmark in the history of political betting. The odds fluctuated considerably throughout the day — the average odds matched were 1. More than ten times as many bets were placed as the equivalent day in Despite being clear outsider, two thirds of those bets were placed on Trump.
Further evidence of his gamechanging effect on politics. History will of course record that the market was wrong. Clinton was the strongest of any favourite at this stage during the Betfair era — considerably more so than Biden despite a smaller poll lead. Therein lies a great myth of Rather it was we pundits and punters that over-rated Clinton.
She would maintain a solid overall lead on both indicators but Trump did lead occasionally and there were blips. Going into the first debate, she was around [1. In terms of drama and unpredictability, was the direct opposite of Barack Obama was [1. He would never cede favouritism en route to a 3. The only blip came when Obama was widely acknowledged to lose the first debate. Romney briefly took a small lead in some polls but that may have actually helped the incumbent. In fact, state polls consistently pointed towards an electoral college win and these drove market trends more than nationwide figures.
Obama steadily shortened in the betting as polling day neared, trading around 1. Republican incumbent George W Bush left office with very low approval ratings, against a dire economic backdrop. The financial crash and subsequent bailout of banks and insurance companies would leave a near-impossible task for GOP successor John McCain. Polling signals, whether at national or state level, continue to point strongly towards a landslide victory for Joe Biden.
The Next President markets by far the most liquid but merely one among hundreds of betting opportunities. New ones emerge almost daily, whether side markets on the main event or the vast array of Congressional races. Also on November 3rd, there is the nationwide race for control of the House of Representatives and Congressional districts, plus 33 Senate races.
Going in, Democrats control the former with seats, while Republicans lead the Senate by seats. Betting is available on all bar the less competitive House districts. Whilst each of these races is a stand-alone event, voting trends are closely related to the wider political argument. The USA was already a deeply polarised country, with ever fewer persuadable swing voters, before Trump came along. Under his presidency, that polarisation has become entrenched.
I do not, therefore, expect a dramatic change in the polls. On the question of this election — a referendum on Trump — I reckon this polarised electorate splits against. Numerous polls — including at times when he was faring better nationally — showed around this figure committed to voting against him and even, during the impeachment process, to be removed from office. My current prediction is On value grounds, I prefer [8.
It is quite possible things get worse for Trump under the campaign spotlight. The Trump era has engaged and energised voters on both sides of the argument like never before. My view is that trend helps Democrats because turnout is a historic weakness for the left, in large part because they rely upon electoral segments that are less likely to be registered — young and minority voters, for example.
Lower turnout among Dem-leaning groups are the core reason that Hillary Clinton lost. The much improved turnout in worked wonders for them, yielding their best result since the s. They won by 8. Generic ballot polls have barely moved since — the RCP current average has them ahead by 8. Until that happens, we have a fascinating and unpredictable market to consider. Kamala Harris remains favourite although the California Senator has drifted slightly to [2.
Whether her market status is telling, however, is a known unknown. Harris was always a logical candidate. A well-connected, experienced Senator who fits the bill as a potential president, suitable for stepping up in a crisis.
A woman of colour, former rival in the primaries, now an enthusiastic surrogate, who would bring plenty of big donors to the table. I am sceptical that anyone playing this market has an inside track. Rather, it is moved by rational calculation and stories in the media. This despite being arch-enemies — the Ohio Governor even skipped the party convention and refused to endorse him.
For most of the build-up, eventual pick Mike Pence was an outsider. If we are to read anything into the betting, Tammy Duckworth may be the one. In truth, Duckworth is one who escaped my attention when building numerous back and forth positions. She is a woman of colour and her backstory — losing both legs whilst serving in Iraq — is formidable.
Nevertheless, she is plausible. This is precisely the sort of fight Trump would be insane to engage in. Veterans are a core, loyal part of his base. My instinct is generally that fights involving women targeted by Trump and Fox will play positively for Democrats. This was part of my earlier thinking regarding Gretchen Whitmer , after her fights with the White House over Covid help and lockdown in Michigan.
However her chance seems to have faded following the George Floyd murder and protests, on the assumption that Biden would pick a woman of colour. Likewise, I can very much see Biden wanting to have Susan Rice take on her critics on a big stage. This would be another very stupid fight to pick. Moreover, Rice has intervened with interviews and op-eds on Russia , and the unresolved scandal that Trump has done nothing to counter or protest to Putin about bounties being placed on the heads of US soldiers.
They have no defence. At their final sitting of this term, the US Supreme Court offered considerable relief to those fearing the rule of law was in mortal danger. In two long-running cases, they effectively ruled that President Trump is not immune from investigation. It did not, however, give those voices what they wanted most — a means of removing Trump from office before November. There were two cases. Trump was fighting the Manhattan District Attorney, who has subpoenaed his tax returns and financial records as part of a criminal investigation, from his bankers and accountants.
By a margin, the court ruled in favour of the prosecutors. In Trump v. The second case was similar, but brought by Congress. Here, the court ruled that House lawyers must improve their argument. This will now go back to the lower courts. The good news for Trump is a general consensus among legal experts that these rulings mean nothing will come out before the election in November. The US court process will simply take too long. That certainly applies to the Congressional subpoenas.
Trump will continue to successfully block that democratic oversight. However, the situation regarding New York is not crystal clear. These Trump investigations are well developed — delayed for a year by these legal challenges — and both Deutsche Bank and Mazars immediately confirmed they would comply.
In theory at least, DA Cyrus Vance could move quickly and potentially indict the president before November 3rd. None of this prevented Trump from declaring victory and employing his usual refrain that all the investigations are a political witch-hunt.
Furthermore, it is widely reported that he will pardon Roger Stone today. Four days before the Machiavellian advisor is due to go to jail, and a couple after Facebook banned a network of fake accounts connected to him. The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue. This is all a political prosecution. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration! So what are the implications for November? It is hard to make a confident call about the New York case from outside.
Shocking information about Deutsche Bank is emerging from investigations in multiple countries, such as their involvement in money laundering for the Russian mafia. Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st century. Betting signals, however, remain far less clear. There are countless potential reasons for the differential but the most obvious regards trajectory.
A July poll is a mere snapshot of opinion, ahead of an intense campaign during which much can change. As we are frequently reminded, polls can be wrong and there is a long time to go. Remember It is indeed important to remember the previous election — both as a guide to the fallibility of betting signals but also in order to avoid drawing false comparisons. The situations differ in at least six respects. Yes, Clinton led the polls but her position was never this strong.
Using the RCP average, Biden currently leads by 8. The final RCP average showed Clinton ahead by 3. One reason pundits were blindsided by the polls was extra parties polling much better than usual. Those ordinary Clinton tallies seemed high enough. As it transpired, whilst Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullen did take a much higher, gamechanging share than minor parties usually do, they fell back in the latter stages.
Critically, late deciders swung for Trump. In theory, a challenge could yet emerge and split the non-Trump vote. Kanye West just announced his bid on Twitter. Trump and Clinton were the two least popular candidates ever. He always had negative approval ratings. Hers turned sour during more than a year under FBI investigation for an over-amplified e-mail scandal.
Clinton conspiracy theories were deep in the US psyche long before Russia and Wikileaks got involved. Despite at least most of their claims being false, they carried enough of a ring of truth for those who wanted to believe. The same cannot be said of Joe Biden. The markets are quite deep on the outrights, for example the Most Seats market or Overall Majority markets. There is less money on what might be seen as minor markets, for example the number of seats won by each party, etc.
Bookmakers also have a range of prices available for markets, right down to who will win each seat. They can and do close winning accounts though, and can restrict the amount you can get on online. Yeah, at least one of us is going to be interested in betting on the seat-by-seat outcomes, where I expect the markets are pretty thin.
But I think the overall outcome Con maj. Your email address will not be published. Replication code zip. Download the zipped archive which contains several files. The remaining files are either data files or config files. Rosebud says:.
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