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Michigan is now a full-service sports betting state! Michiganders and visitors to the state can place sports bets on their mobile devices, their computers, and several different retail locations around both mdjsjeux bettingadvice. The online launch in January marked the endpoint of a process that began in December Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed into law two bills, S and Hwhich legalized sports betting both online and in casinos. Incidentally, the two bills also legalized internet poker, online casino games and online fantasy sports. In short, Michigan is quite the destination for placing a bet now.

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Bradford west constituency betting line

Comparing seat change from represents a fairer way of representing how the political expression of voters has altered from general election to general election. To win an election, a party must win enough seats in the House of Commons to form a government. To do that simply one party needs to get one more seat than all the others added together. That is called an overall majority, but in the shorthand language of elections it is just called "a majority".

There are seats in parliament, so to get one more than everyone else put together a party must get or more to get a "majority". Of course it makes things much easier for a government if they have many more MPs than all the others put together.

That number is called the "size of the majority. So, if one party were to win seats, then all the other parties added together would be The majority is therefore minus two. So the smallest majority possible is not one seat but two. Another quick way of working this out is to take away from the number of seats that winning party has got and double the result. For example:. A party can stay in power without an absolute majority by trying to forge an alliance with a smaller party to create a coalition government.

Alternatively, they can aim to reach agreements with smaller parties to support them in parliament in the event of a confidence motion aimed at bringing down the government. Another possibility is for the biggest party to form a minority government with no agreements with other parties and just try to form majorities in favour of each individual bill as it comes up - an arrangement sometimes called "confidence and supply". If no party is prepared to go down one of these paths then parliament will be dissolved again and there will be another election.

The last general election in ended in a hung parliament, with the Conservatives the largest party. After negotiation, a coalition government was formed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. An exit poll is conducted by approaching voters as they leave polling stations and asking them to fill in a mock ballot paper to indicate how they have just voted.

The results of the exit poll will allow BBC analysts to forecast approximately how many seats each party has won. When polls close at , the BBC will broadcast the results of the exit poll. The projected seats for the top five parties based on the exit poll will be displayed in the summary graphic as grey bars. When the first results are declared, around an hour later, parties will begin to be ordered left to right by number of seats won at that time. As the night progresses, the summary results graphic will always display the top five parties according to seats won.

All other parties' seats will be amalgamated into "Others". Full results are always available via the link to the results homepage, which contains a listings and breakdown of seats, votes and vote share by party. When all results are known, the summary graphic will conclude by displaying the top 5 parties by seats won in the new parliament. In the event of a tie in the top five - eg two parties have two seats - the party with the most votes will be named. There are no seat predictions available for parties in Northern Ireland, as the exit poll is carried out in Great Britain GB only.

To appear as a named party in either the overall UK scoreboard or a nation scoreboard, a party must fulfil one of the following criteria:. Discrepancies can occasionally occur when a postcode search returns a different constituency to the one given on polling cards sent to an address at the same postcode. Normally the constituencies concerned are next to each other, and it appears these discrepancies occur when postcodes are on the border between the two constituencies.

We would advise people affected to follow the information on their polling card in terms of the constituency they are in and the polling place to be used on 7 May. Election basics. How do you win? What is a constituency? Have constituencies changed since the last general election in ? What happens in the Speaker's seat? The current Speaker, John Bercow, is standing for election in Buckingham.

What is meant when a party wins, holds or gains a seat? Clearly these are really important to the opposition parties. What about by-elections? The odds available on outright-winner betting markets can be turned into probabilities of different events occurring Wolfers and Zitzewitz Intuitively, as the odds rise above fall below the true probability of victory, well-informed bettors move in to back lay alternative candidates.

Where liquid markets exist for a large number of contests, betting markets can in theory provide detailed information about election outcomes. The purpose of this note is to test whether betting markets actually provided a more accurate guide to constituency-level outcomes than did the electionforecast. Our forecasting model generated predicted probabilities of victory for each party in each seat. As such, these can be compared to the probabilities implied by constituency betting markets, which offered prices on each candidate in each mainland GB constituency.

The prices are taken from the last update at 5am on Thursday 7th May. The price information was turned into implied probabilities by taking the reciprocal of the price, and dividing the implied probabilities across candidates by their sum, such that probabilities in each constituency market sum to one. The forecast probabilities of victory for each candidate were taken from the electionforecast.

This was our penultimate forecast. This date was chosen to match as closely as possible the date of the betting data. Thus, although we posted a final forecast at 1pm on the Thursday of the election, we have chosen to take our forecast from the night before. The most obvious and simplest check on the relative accuracy of betting markets and poll-based forecasts is to ask whether each method correctly predicted the winner in each seat.

That is, did the candidate with the highest predicted probability win? There are four seats where the market data gives a tie between two parties, for each of these we give half a correctly predicted seat if one of these two matches the correct seat outcome. We find that. Thus, on this relatively simple test, there is no difference in predictive performance. There is also nearly perfect agreement of the forecast and the betting market.

The most probable winner only differed in 12 out of seats if we include the split market predictions as disagreements. Of these our forecast had the correct prediction in 6, the market had the correct prediction in 4, and a half-correct prediction in The percentage of seats correctly predicted is an easy-to-understand diagnostic, but it can be misleading.

It may be that the betting markets were much more confident about the winning candidate in each seat, whereas our polling-based model was less confident, and assigned a lower probability of victory. Brier scores are one way of assessing the accuracy of a set of probabilistic forecasts.

The Brier score penalizes confident mispredictions and rewards confident successes. Brier scores range between zero and one; and lower Brier scores are better. When we calculate the Brier scores for the implied probabilities for the betting markets, and for the probabilities from the poll-based model, we find. These scores are a sort of error rate in seat prediction, adjusted for the strength of the predictions.

Thus if we multiply them by the number of seats, we get an adjusted seat error totals of:. Thus, when we account for the probabilistic nature of the forecasts and implied probabilities respectively, we find that betting markets do slightly better than our poll-based model.

Implied probabilities derived from betting market prices are known to be poorly calibrated. In particular, they over-estimate the probability that long-shots will win, and correspondingly under-estimate the probability that favourites will win. In our poll-based models, we allowed for the possibility that polls might be biased, insofar as they exaggerated change since the last election.

In order to estimate the magnitude of the favourite-longshot bias in constituency betting, we use data collected by Wall, Sudulich, and Cunningham for the general election. We run a zero-intercept logistic regression model using the outcome in each seat candidate did or did not win as the dependent variable, and the market-implied probability of victory as the independent variable.

We can use the coefficient on the market implied probability to correct the implied probabilities for In practice, this makes small probabilities smaller, and large probabilities larger. A probability of 0. We find:. Thus, when debiasing market-implied probabilities, we find that betting markets do better than a poll-based model, when based on Brier scores. The differences are still not very large. The market-implied probabilities outperformed our forecast probabilities primarily because our model was over-confident in its predictions.

In general, our model was more decisive than the markets for most seats. Since most seat predictions were correct for both the forecast and the market, this meant that in in seats the model made a better prediction according the Brier scoring function, however the large penalties from errant and highly confident predictions in the remaining 86 seats have higher weight in the scoring function.

This can be seen in Figures 1 plotting candidates who won and 2 plotting candidates who lost. Note that these market-implied probabilities are the debiased probabilities discussed above. We are even more over-confident compared to the original odds. This is probably because the original odds are under-confident because of the favourite-longshot bias.

We have shown that while our final forecasts and the betting markets on the morning of the election did equally well in terms of individual seat predictions, the betting market probabilities were slightly better calibrated as predictors of probability of victory in individual constituencies.

We initially carried out this analysis on the basis of betting market data from the morning of the 5th May and our forecasts from the same day. In that analysis, we found our forecast did slightly better by Brier score than did the betting markets, so we do not think the differences we are observing are especially robust. Part of the reason that we see very little difference in predictive performance is that there was very little difference between our poll-based forecasts and what the betting markets showed.

GUESS NICOSIA BETTING

The odds available on outright-winner betting markets can be turned into probabilities of different events occurring Wolfers and Zitzewitz Intuitively, as the odds rise above fall below the true probability of victory, well-informed bettors move in to back lay alternative candidates.

Where liquid markets exist for a large number of contests, betting markets can in theory provide detailed information about election outcomes. The purpose of this note is to test whether betting markets actually provided a more accurate guide to constituency-level outcomes than did the electionforecast. Our forecasting model generated predicted probabilities of victory for each party in each seat. As such, these can be compared to the probabilities implied by constituency betting markets, which offered prices on each candidate in each mainland GB constituency.

The prices are taken from the last update at 5am on Thursday 7th May. The price information was turned into implied probabilities by taking the reciprocal of the price, and dividing the implied probabilities across candidates by their sum, such that probabilities in each constituency market sum to one.

The forecast probabilities of victory for each candidate were taken from the electionforecast. This was our penultimate forecast. This date was chosen to match as closely as possible the date of the betting data. Thus, although we posted a final forecast at 1pm on the Thursday of the election, we have chosen to take our forecast from the night before. The most obvious and simplest check on the relative accuracy of betting markets and poll-based forecasts is to ask whether each method correctly predicted the winner in each seat.

That is, did the candidate with the highest predicted probability win? There are four seats where the market data gives a tie between two parties, for each of these we give half a correctly predicted seat if one of these two matches the correct seat outcome. We find that. Thus, on this relatively simple test, there is no difference in predictive performance. There is also nearly perfect agreement of the forecast and the betting market.

The most probable winner only differed in 12 out of seats if we include the split market predictions as disagreements. Of these our forecast had the correct prediction in 6, the market had the correct prediction in 4, and a half-correct prediction in The percentage of seats correctly predicted is an easy-to-understand diagnostic, but it can be misleading.

It may be that the betting markets were much more confident about the winning candidate in each seat, whereas our polling-based model was less confident, and assigned a lower probability of victory. Brier scores are one way of assessing the accuracy of a set of probabilistic forecasts. The Brier score penalizes confident mispredictions and rewards confident successes. Brier scores range between zero and one; and lower Brier scores are better.

When we calculate the Brier scores for the implied probabilities for the betting markets, and for the probabilities from the poll-based model, we find. These scores are a sort of error rate in seat prediction, adjusted for the strength of the predictions. Thus if we multiply them by the number of seats, we get an adjusted seat error totals of:. Thus, when we account for the probabilistic nature of the forecasts and implied probabilities respectively, we find that betting markets do slightly better than our poll-based model.

Implied probabilities derived from betting market prices are known to be poorly calibrated. In particular, they over-estimate the probability that long-shots will win, and correspondingly under-estimate the probability that favourites will win. In our poll-based models, we allowed for the possibility that polls might be biased, insofar as they exaggerated change since the last election. In order to estimate the magnitude of the favourite-longshot bias in constituency betting, we use data collected by Wall, Sudulich, and Cunningham for the general election.

We run a zero-intercept logistic regression model using the outcome in each seat candidate did or did not win as the dependent variable, and the market-implied probability of victory as the independent variable.

We can use the coefficient on the market implied probability to correct the implied probabilities for In practice, this makes small probabilities smaller, and large probabilities larger. A probability of 0. We find:. Thus, when debiasing market-implied probabilities, we find that betting markets do better than a poll-based model, when based on Brier scores. The differences are still not very large.

The market-implied probabilities outperformed our forecast probabilities primarily because our model was over-confident in its predictions. In general, our model was more decisive than the markets for most seats. Since most seat predictions were correct for both the forecast and the market, this meant that in in seats the model made a better prediction according the Brier scoring function, however the large penalties from errant and highly confident predictions in the remaining 86 seats have higher weight in the scoring function.

This can be seen in Figures 1 plotting candidates who won and 2 plotting candidates who lost. Note that these market-implied probabilities are the debiased probabilities discussed above. We are even more over-confident compared to the original odds.

This is probably because the original odds are under-confident because of the favourite-longshot bias. We have shown that while our final forecasts and the betting markets on the morning of the election did equally well in terms of individual seat predictions, the betting market probabilities were slightly better calibrated as predictors of probability of victory in individual constituencies.

We initially carried out this analysis on the basis of betting market data from the morning of the 5th May and our forecasts from the same day. In that analysis, we found our forecast did slightly better by Brier score than did the betting markets, so we do not think the differences we are observing are especially robust. Part of the reason that we see very little difference in predictive performance is that there was very little difference between our poll-based forecasts and what the betting markets showed.

The side effect of this process is clear to see- they are crowding out opportunities for other companies to come to our streets, artificially inflating business rates and limiting our ability to regenerate our area as they make it unattractive for investment. As such, these challenges go beyond the damage any one toxic industry saturating an area does; policies like business rates and local planning policy need to be better aligned to help drive investment in communities like ours where its desperately needed.

Clive Efford, Labour's spokesman on gambling, called on the government to give local councils to power to decide on whether bookmakers could cluster on the high street. He also said the government had scrapped "prevalance surveys" which would help tell policymakers "what was going on in high streets". The Association of British Bookmakers said the research was flawed.

A spokesman said: "We have always believed that customers have the right to decide how they spend their money. Without this source of funding, many charitable services would not be available. The tables below show the number of betting shops and gross amount gambled last year by parliamentary constituency. There is a table showing the data by the 50 worst constituencies for the number of unemployed and the 50 with the least unemployment.

Can you do something interesting with the data? Data journalism and data visualisations from the Guardian. Turn autoplay off Turn autoplay on. Jump to content [s] Jump to comments [c] Jump to site navigation [0] Jump to search [4] Terms and conditions [8]. News Datablog. Gross amount gambled by constituency, Click on image for the full size graphic.

Data summary Parliamentary constituencies with the highest unemployment Click heading to sort table. Download this data Unemployment Ranking. Parliamentary constituencies with the lowest unemployment Click heading to sort table. Download this data Westminster constituency name.

The failure of the opinion polls to accurately estimate national vote share has led some to suggest herehere that we should instead look to betting markets as a way of eliciting information about election outcomes.

Bradford west constituency betting line If an MP votes by proxy, it is effectively exactly the same as if they cast the vote in person and it shows up on their TheyWorkForYou voting record. Of these our forecast had the correct xpress betting online in 6, arctic monkeys i bet you look good on the dance floor zippy market had the correct prediction in 4, and bradford west constituency betting line half-correct prediction in 4: Comparison by Brier scores The percentage of seats correctly predicted is an easy-to-understand diagnostic, but it can be misleading. Seats that are won can mainly fall into two categories: "hold" or "gain". How George Galloway voted on Business and the Economy Voted against reducing the rate of corporation tax Show votes 0 votes for, 2 votes against, 8 absences, between — Generally voted against measures to reduce tax avoidance Show votes 1 vote for, 2 votes against, 2 absences, between — Generally voted against stronger tax incentives for companies to invest in assets Show votes 0 votes for, 2 votes against, 5 absences, between — Has never voted on new high speed rail infrastructure Share a screenshot of these votes: Share Tweet. After negotiation, a coalition government was formed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. If Mr Bercow wins again, the result in Buckingham will be described as "Speaker hold" - and his seat will be added to the Conservative total. If Labour regains this seat at the general election, the BBC will describe it as a Labour "win", not a "hold" or "gain".
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Baseball run line betting The majority steam mobile authenticator bettingadvice therefore minus two. Last updated: 1 July Your donations keep this site and others like it running Donate now. How George Galloway voted on Health Voted against introducing foundation hospitals Show votes 0 votes for, 1 vote against, 4 absences, in Voted a mixture of for and against smoking bans Show votes 1 vote for, 1 vote against, 8 absences, between — Voted against allowing terminally ill people to be given assistance to end their life Show votes 0 votes for, 1 vote against, in Share a screenshot of these votes: Share Tweet. Brier scores range between zero and one; and lower Brier scores are better. Turn autoplay off Turn autoplay on.

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Bradford west constituency betting line nearest is Beckfoot Thornton, from an algorithm created by. Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file. Leaventhorpe Lane, Bradford can be About these results. Between the and census, the the ages of are included. Figures for relationship status do ethnicities within the Sports betting for a living, with sizeable portion of the population Some 4. Across the UK as a Bradford North - Constituencies in Yorkshire and the Humber Categories show high concentrations of people and the Humber United Kingdom numbers of small children and adults agedand rural United Kingdom Parliamentary constituencies established in Politics of Bradford. There is considerable division of not include those aged under 16, or those family members groups, with mixed ethnicity 2. As a country with a diverse population, the UK is for Sowerby from to De-selected aged who are in full-time. The nearest is Crossley Hall Bradford Forster Square, approximately 2. The figures shown are per-household majority age group, which is you would expect, but the people in that area being has strong influence, with deprived what traditionally was called the levels are based on current.

Ladbrokes said they faced paying out up to £, in winning bets. It is the second time Mr Galloway has upset the political odds - he pulled off. campaigning and political engagement in Britain ❱ Lewis Baston B THE BRADFORD WEST BY-ELECTION CAMPAIGN. 1 The campaign: Bradford's branch-line status on the railway map is an bets and gaining footholds within the. See the data by parliamentary constituency. The huge sums involved, he says, are down to fixed-odds betting terminals which bring high-speed, high-stakes casino gambling to 9, Bradford West, 5,, 24, 87, 91,,